Who is Dr. Guy McPherson

March 1, 20169 yr

Author

So are you implying McPherson is wrong (based on the average) by about 80 years? It is probably better to get an early wake up call rather than one too late. As long as this wake-up call doesn't precipitate inertia which I sensed McPherson was saying in the beginning, like preaching "do nothing for there is nothing that can save us". But let's not be lulled into thinking everything is going to be OK till 2100. I actually wished we were discussing climate change and what could be done years ago (personal perspective).

Nothing is certain. Climate is a complex system, which means it it cannot be modeled perfectly. That more than one model more or less agree increases the probability that the models are correct, but there is always a chance of a big surprise, either good or bad from our perspective. Johnson's article gives me a bit better understanding of what climatologists think of.

March 3, 20169 yr

Scott K. Johnson writes a good rebuttal of McPherson's public statements about abrupt climate change in How Guy McPherson gets it wrong.

A good political rebuttal, and answer to the argument as put by Guy, and reassuring - true.

But look here, SJ's rebuttal to the certainty of doom claims is not itself watertight. For example, at one point he notes that there is no need to panic over methane plumes in East Siberia, because we don't know whether they are even new - similar plumes elsewhere have been perking along for thousands of years, without crashing the climate.

This is so.

On the other hand, we don't know that they are old, either. And we do know that where they are they used to be under ice most of the time, and are now reaching the surface - a new thing, even if they are old. So although they are not the certainties of disaster that Guy makes them out to be, they are not all that reassuring either - one would prefer something better than "these things don't for sure mean we're all going to die, just potentially - the odds are everything is ok. They never killed us off before, right? " Dude: what are those odds ? Inquiring minds are getting a little bit alarmed.

And so forth.

March 3, 20169 yr

Author

Yes, there are things known and unknown; the known unknowns are predictable. The unknown unknowns could be killers. There is actually sub category, partly known unknowns; one might lull us into thinking there isn't a problem, then bang.

Edited March 3, 20169 yr by EdEarl