Cuba after Castro

[Sisyphus]

Fidel Castro seems to be recovering from his surgery, but even if he does, he is 80 years old and won't be around forever. It is also important to note that he has not specifically mentioned any plans to reassume power from his brother, and the rumors are that there are plans for a permanent transition. However you look at it, a new era for Cuba is close at hand.

 

Or is it? Despite seemingly everyone's predictions, there are no signs of unusual unrest in Cuba whatsoever. Everything appears to be running smoothly, which seems to disprove the theory that American policy towards Cuba is based on, namely, that the regime is fragile and will die with its leader.

 

So what's going to happen when Castro is officially out of power or dead? Will it be just business as usual, as it appears to be? Is the lack of significant reaction among the Cuban people we're seeing now just the signs of a delayed reaction? Have we once again been shown how disgruntled exiles are unreliable sources of intelligence at best?

[Saryctos]

I think one of the main reasons nothing is happening is that the Cuban people(so far as I know, not one of them) see Fidel as a heroic figure. I'd assume that as long as he's still alive some of them would want to keep things running smoothly out of respect for his actions during the revolution. It could also be perhaps that they fear if they make any noise before he's gone he'll crush them with an iron fist, similar to what Saddam did to his people after the Gulf war cease-fire.

 

Although I can't imagine things would remain the same after he is gone. Even the idea of possible US talks just because 'he's the new guy' seems entirely plausible.

[Sisyphus]

Yeah, I guess I should add, how will the U.S. react if the leadership changes but the government essentially stays the same? Will they reevaluate their whole policy and actually talk to Cuba?

[Anjruu]

If and when Castro dies, its going to be chaos. Raul is not charismatic or politically astute enough to lead the country, so its probably going to be martial law. I think the reason that there is no unrest is because it is surreal for most of them. It would be like if suddenly the entire US government suddenly came down with an illness. Thats not quite it, but thats the general idea, I think. Most of them can not remember before Castro's revolution, Castro is just a fact of life. If he dies, then, once the reality of it sinks in, there might be unrest, especially with the exiles trying to return and the US putting preasure on the Cubans and the government trying to get along without Castro. I think its going to be bloody murder, especially if it happens during Mr. George "Kill em all hehe" Bush's presidency.

[Pangloss]

Chaos is certainly possible. I don't know if people realize how thoroughly connected the Cuban exile community in South Florida is with the people of Cuba. I mean, Cuba is closer to where I'm sitting than Orlando or Tampa. They'd be in our local television network affiliate range if they weren't blocking our signals.

 

My hope is that it will be viewed as an opportunity for peaceful opening of relations. I've felt for a while now that the embargo was probably a mistake, that we should have taken a more open, trade-oriented approach.

[john5746]

My hope is that it will be viewed as an opportunity for peaceful opening of relations. I've felt for a while now that the embargo was probably a mistake' date=' that we should have taken a more open, trade-oriented approach.[/quote']

 

Yes, this situation has really puzzled me for a long time. I mean, the people that seem to want this embargo the most - Cuban exiles, are the ones who have relatives most effected by it. It became apparent that Castro was going nowhere a while back, yet we keep this "wall" even after the Berlin wall fell. Stupid.

[-Demosthenes-]

If[/b'] and when Castro dies...

If? Who is he god?

[Sisyphus]

If? Who is he god?

 

That, or maybe all our demonizing of him proved more effective than we bargained for, and he's literally become a demon.