I entered a local newspaper contest where you have to predict the Oscar winners and whoever gets the most correct answers wins. So, my question is this:

 

The categories were:

 

Best Actor

Best Actress

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Animated Film

Director

Best Picture

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay

 

 

so theres 9 categories with 5 nominees in each category. What are the chances of someone getting all 9 correct, stastistically speaking? I got 8/9 correct. There were 700 people who entered the contest. What are the odds that I would get this many right? The winner gets free movie tix for a year!

Don't you think this thread is created a little too late?

 

Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman CAPOTE

Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon WALK THE LINE

Supporting Actor: George Clooney SYRIANA

Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz THE CONSTANT GARDENER

Animated Film: WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT Nick Park and Steve Box

Director: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN Ang Lee

Best Picture: CRASH Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman

 

Those was the results from last night. (March 5, 2006).

I wasn't asking who the winners were...I know the results. I watched the show.

 

What I am asking is, since I got 8/9 correct-what were the odds of predicting that many correct?

 

-And-

 

How many possible combinations could there have been?

Probability all nine correct (1/5)^9 ie Decimal odds 1953125 or fractional odds 1953124/1

Probability 8 correct = (1/5)^8*(4/5)*9 ie decimal odds 54253.476 or fractional odds 54252.47/1

Thanks.

 

BTW, doesn't the amount of entries affect the odds? There were 700 entries.

I think I should point out that my calculation assumes all are equally likely to win. If you choose favourites the odds will be a lot shorter and if you choose outsiders the odds will be a lot longer.

The number of people entered will not affect the probability of picking 8 or 9, but it will affect your chance of getting a prize, but with only 700 entries you stand a pretty good chance of winning or being top equal

assuming all things being equal, then the winnner is picked at random from all those who got the most entries. of course the number of entries therefore affects the probability you win. the more who enter, the more who get most right, etc.

 

obviously oscars are more predictable than random, so who can say if you've even got a chance at all; it is eminently likely someone got 9/9, and we can't tell the likelihood of that wihtout some random sampling to predict the answer. we could of course work out some conditional probabilities based upon all this, and some assumptions of randomness, but in any such case with only 700 entries and random chances then you're almost certain to win, and that is unlikely to be an accurate representation of the real odds.

For more accuracy by far the easiest way is to look at the historical betting odds at the time the selections were made. Betting markets are in general very efficient, although just occasionally they aren't.