Oberon245

Charon, you don't understand this statement?

"The CDC said on their website that "not all individuals need to be tested" which is very confusing given that  asymptomatic individuals are allegedly spreading the virus and b) there can be no accurate IFR or CFR statement or estimate without that data."

To be clear, there can be NO ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF CASES without population-wide, consistent testing  for a virus which presents asymptomatically at least 45% of the time. Basing IFR on SYMPTOMATIC cases and hospitalizations presents a gross distortion of the statistic.  I would think this is academic....

" no way you can test that in laboratory directly" - I'm sorry but why is that exactly? There have been many studies which measured symptomatic spread of respiratory viruses, some of which have been cited to support asymptomatic spread, although that does not appear to be a valid comparison.

"The most accurate number are of course people tested positive, which forms the baseline." - how can this be in any way accurate if no general testing protocol has been established? The CDC said on their website that "not all individuals need to be tested" which is very confusing given that  asymptomatic individuals are allegedly spreading the virus and b) there can be no accurate IFR or CFR statement or estimate without that data.

specific timeframe: 2020

Charon, you describe yourself as a "biology expert."  Can you clarify what this means? I don't mean to question your credentials, its just that I thought biology was too vast a field to be amenable to general expertise...

also did the last administration really craft the CDC policies with respect to C-19? Because this is where the failure appears to lie....

How do you handle these things in the UK? The more detail you could provide, the better. Specifically peer-reviewed research the UK government cites to support it's policies. Thank you for replying BTW.

On 1/18/2021 at 12:09 PM, CharonY said:

A) there is no immunity for COVID-19. For Influenza we have endemic immunity plus vaccinations. Still thousands die each year from influenza, more have died from COVID-19. If we let it fully sweep through the population, far more will die.

B) Many of the infections you mention are chronic infections. I.e. many live for years with the disease and the deaths in any year are often the cumulation of many years of infections. The death of COVID-19 is the consequence of infections in a single year.

C) Specific to lower respiratory tract infections, they are also often connected to things like allergies, air pollution and a whole range of different diseases. If COVID-19 would be added we would see about a 50% increase from a single virus. This is enormous.

 

As many as 45% (quite possibly more) of cases are entirely asymptomatic. Doesn't that qualify as immunity?

It appears to me that we lack accurate measurements/ support for the following:

- the mortality rate including the actual death count

- an accurate measure of the case rate / number of infections

- valid science in support of the general US pandemic response

If anyone could provide this information, I would be grateful. 

I'm having trouble finding CDC citations which support these claims with respect to COVID:

- valid information regarding the body count (is this ONLY measured by death certificates?)

- laboratory studies confirming  asymptomatic individuals spreading  the virus (I'm seeing data analysis and case studies only, apparently)

- accurate case estimates (there appears to be no attempt on the part of the government to gather this data with respect to measuring asymptomatic cases)

If someone has data to contribute, it would be much appreciated, and thanks in advance