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FiveThirtyEight

bascule
in Politics

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I've been using this site for the past several months to track the polls:

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com

 

(538 is the number of electoral votes, btw)

 

It was developed by a guy named Nate Silver who originally wrote a model for predicting baseball games called PECOTA. The model predicted the Rays would turn it around, going from losing 96 games to winning 90. They ended up winning 97. Who'da thunk it? PECOTA did.

 

Now he's turned to predicting elections. His model runs 10,000 times a day, and analyzes the history of polls vs election results with a data set going back to the '50s.

 

He predicts Obama has a 94.7% chance of winning... on election day.

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