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Crimea troubles - start of something larger?


CaptainPanic
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Today Russians moved their forces out of Crimea trying to seize something in Kherson oblast. Ukrainian army responded though we don't know hoe the response looked like.

 

SEVASTOPOL, March 15, 17:55 /ITAR-TASS/. Unidentified persons have abducted Russian Bloc leader and City Council member Gennady Basov in Sevastopol.
Nine unidentified men abducted Basov some between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. on Saturday, March 15, the party’s press service said. This information was confirmed to ITAR-TASS by police.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/723678

 

This may spiral out of control at any moment, gentlemen.

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Well, gentlemen...it seems Crimea will be owned by Russia once again. Here comes a war.

I don't think that is certain. My understanding is that a lot of the hostility of the Russian speaking residents of the Crimea is related to the contoversy connected to the use of Russian as an official language.

See http://rt.com/news/minority-language-law-ukraine-035/

If their right to use Russian as an official language in the Crimea is affirmed, then perhaps the pressure there to secede from the Ukraine will diminish.

Edited by Bill Angel
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ITAR TASS and RT are funded by the Russian state, so I wouldn't call them a true news agencies, they are more - the voice of Kremlin.

However, it is ussually very usefull to read them, as they give a mirror version of reality that one can interprete accordingly. :)

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Russia is flexing its muscles, and the fact that the EU doesn't punch Russia directly in the face is explained as a weakness. Yet if you compare the map of Europe right before the Soviet union collapsed, and right now: I see a handful of East-Block states and 3 former Soviet states now full members of the EU, and several others with a focus on the West.

 

 

Maybe the EU is not moving in like Team America, with its Shock-and-Awe tactics, and Putin probably has bigger balls than any EU government member, but the EU is doing extremely well in the big picture. Just one month ago, the Ukraine had a Russia-focussed government, and had just cancelled a deal with the EU. Now, most of the Ukraine has a EU-focussed government, and only the Crimea is still under Russian influence. The way I see it, the EU won in this exchange, even if it didn't do much itself.

 

I bet that in the background, there are many negotiations with the new Ukrainian government. Instead of trying to keep the Crimea in Ukraine, these EU-negotiators just try to keep the rest of the Ukraine in Europe. And as far as I can see, they're succeeding.

 

Also, something many don't seem to realize, Russia just "removed" 1.5 million Russia-oriented voters from the Ukraine by absorbing the Crimea, which means that it's almost certain that in the next elections, the results will be EU-oriented. And I predict that within the next 1-2 years, you'll see EU-oriented and EU-funded infrastructure plans (new roads and railroads) and possibly more financial aid.

 

Short-term integration is perhaps done with soldiers. Long term integration is done through infrastructure, the exchange of people and culture. The EU works hard on the latter.

 

This is just my prediction, and I cannot support it with any links.

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The whole thing is getting more and more out of control.

 

Today an exchange of fire took place between Russian forces and Ukrainian garrison in Simferopol, as a result an Ukrainian officer was killed. Some time later a member of Crimean unit was killed by a sniper and another one was wounded.

 

There are reports that Ukrainian nationalists began mobilization and training. Reuters reports that Ukrainian forces remaining in Crimea were authorized to use their weapons in self defense.

Edited by SlavicWolf
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I am really surprised by your statement..

Have not I showed in post #31 video where Russian soldiers took control over Crimean airport, and then Ukrainian soldiers, without weapons, tried to retrieve it back. And Russian soldiers started shooting to scary them.. ?

You have in fact not, there is so much disinformation that is evident even in this; there were never any Russian soldiers occupying anything, they are what the media tends to call pro-Russian forces, who are citizens of Crimea who took up arms when they saw what was happening and still is in Maidan; clear distinction, they are not the armed forces of the Russian Federation. This is a good example how things get twisted so much in the media though...

 

 

 

Today an exchange of fire took place between Russian forces and Ukrainian garrison in Simferopol, as a result an Ukrainian officer was killed. Some time later a member of Crimean unit was killed by a sniper and another one was wounded.

Crimean news source, citing the police http://www.c-inform.info/news/id/1154 points out that the shooting happened in two directions from one position, shots were fired both at the Crimean self-defense force and at the Ukranian military base. One member of the Crimean self-defense force and one member of the Ukranian military were killed, two more members of the self-defense force were wounded. Similar tactic was used in Maidan when one sniper fired at both activists and the police force.

 

 

Just one month ago, the Ukraine had a Russia-focussed government, and had just cancelled a deal with the EU

So a note on this. The deals with the EU and Russia are not and have never been mutually exclusive, they are not picking a side, its not east vs west, and so the deal with the EU was not cancelled, it was not accepted for further negotiations. The people in the government are not stupid, and the actual speech where their president announced his government's decision explained that well. They didn't join EU because doing so would mean plunging the country in an arguably even bigger crisis then what we are currently observing. In order for the Ukraine to join the EU, the entire production system will have to have been modernized to the European standards, many plants would have had to be closed, this would have meant laying off perhaps hundreds of thousands of people. They would have had to change the financial system, plunging the country into inflation, restructure, etc, etc, there were a few points that the government wanted to renegotiate with the EU leaders, and again, being a part of the EU is not exclusive, you can be a member of other trade organizations...

Oh yeah meant to note, the current prime-minister also declined to sign the current version of the EU economic agreement (as of today anyways) for the same exact reason as the previous government...

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You have in fact not, there is so much disinformation that is evident even in this; there were never any Russian soldiers occupying anything, they are what the media tends to call pro-Russian forces, who are citizens of Crimea who took up arms when they saw what was happening and still is in Maidan; clear distinction, they are not the armed forces of the Russian Federation. This is a good example how things get twisted so much in the media though...

Do they look like "citizens of Crimea who took up arms"? These are by no means "self-defense forces", but clearly professional military units. Perhaps by accident, they wear russian style uniforms and russian weaponry and drive russian army armored vehicles...

 

Armed civilians:

a01_jd_09nov_mexico1.jpg

 

Professional military:

2014.3.3.Ukraine.Main.jpg

 

 

Difference?

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So a note on this. The deals with the EU and Russia are not and have never been mutually exclusive, they are not picking a side, its not east vs west, and so the deal with the EU was not cancelled, it was not accepted for further negotiations. The people in the government are not stupid, and the actual speech where their president announced his government's decision explained that well. They didn't join EU because doing so would mean plunging the country in an arguably even bigger crisis then what we are currently observing. In order for the Ukraine to join the EU, the entire production system will have to have been modernized to the European standards, many plants would have had to be closed, this would have meant laying off perhaps hundreds of thousands of people. They would have had to change the financial system, plunging the country into inflation, restructure, etc, etc, there were a few points that the government wanted to renegotiate with the EU leaders, and again, being a part of the EU is not exclusive, you can be a member of other trade organizations...

 

I agree. Your text sounds like at least someone disagreed, so I thought I'd just make this clear.

 

The EU never started any serious negotiations to get Ukraine into the EU. The negotiations are on a more shallow level: trade agreements, lifting visa requirements and such things.

At this moment, the EU is in enough financial trouble already. It doesn't need a relatively poor country to join it. Especially the Western European countries (Germany, Netherlands, UK, to name a few) would definitely oppose the Ukraine joining at this moment.

 

Oh yeah meant to note, the current prime-minister also declined to sign the current version of the EU economic agreement (as of today anyways) for the same exact reason as the previous government...

 

Do you have a source for this? I didn't know, and I'd like to read more about this.

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Mastercard and Visa shutdown their business in russia.

http://rt.com/business/visa-mastercard-russia-sanctions-285/

http://en.ria.ru/business/20140321/188628529/Visa-Mastercard-Freeze-Customer-Cards-at-Russian-Bank.html

 

If they would give 2 day delay to 0:00 Monday during weekend, it would end up in run on russian banks. While they would be closed for normal operation.

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Funny how apologists like AtomicMaster are always quick to blame their own and claim the other guys are the oppressed. These so called Crimean pro-Russian forces are better equipped than the Ukrainian armed forces. But of course they're not Russian troops ?!?!

 

Don't get me wrong, Obama and the EU are not blameless, having endless meetings and discussions ( hand-wringing ) while the Russians acted.

But if the Europeans had any nads, as soon as the Russians announced the referendum for Crimean independence from Ukraine or annexation by Russia, the Europeans and NATO should have announced their own referendum for all of Ukraine as to whether they wanted to join NATO to be held one week prior.

 

I don't think Vladimir would have been so bold then. He's not protecting Russian speaking peoples but securing access to the Mediterranean through the Black sea ports of the Crimea. All the British, French , Italian, Turkish and German ( ? ) that died for the same reason in 1850 did so for nothing as we haven't learned anything from their sacrifices.

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Funny how apologists like AtomicMaster are always quick to blame their own and claim the other guys are the oppressed. These so called Crimean pro-Russian forces are better equipped than the Ukrainian armed forces. But of course they're not Russian troops ?!?!

 

They were being equipped and trained by the Ukraine special operations units you might remember them from the Maidan times, one of them was called Berkut, it was in the news when the new government claimed them to be less than people and disallowed the 25+ members that were injured (mostly shot and burnt) while carrying out their orders and their family members, and were being denied food, water and any medical care. Yes, due to better funding and the nature of operations SWAT units are almost always much better equipped than usual armed forces.

 

 

But if the Europeans had any nads, as soon as the Russians announced the referendum for Crimean independence from Ukraine or annexation by Russia, the Europeans and NATO should have announced their own referendum for all of Ukraine as to whether they wanted to join NATO to be held one week prior.

 

They were quick to denounce the referendum though, which is a bit selfish having carried the same kinds of referendums in Bosnia for example from recent memory and splitting up nations with a much lower turn out and result. Also joining NATO would not have changed anything on the Crimean situation, nobody was going to provide any military support as nobody is interested in taking Crimea back by force, except maybe for Kiev, but it's not happening.

 

I am not trying to say that i support either side on this matter, I have a firm belief that people should have a choice as to who they want to associate with, and looking at what is happening in the mainland Ukraine, i can not see why Crimeans would have made a different choice, i would like to point out that of the 80+% of people who showed up to vote, 95+% voted for reassociation, thats more people in support of the change than the percentage of people who voted in the last US elections. All i said is that the media seems to say and spin things in a particular way, and i was simply pointing out things they constantly say in a way that makes one have false impressions of reality.

Edited by AtomicMaster
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I am not trying to say that i support either side on this matter, I have a firm belief that people should have a choice as to who they want to associate with,

Crimea's people have lost any choice forever. ;)

Edited by DimaMazin
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