Asteroid impact predicted in 2029

[Martin]

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/986.html

 

http://welcome.to/cnn.com/2004mn4.html

 

diameter 0.4 kilometer

estimated mass 75 million metric tonnes

estimated energy 1.4 GT (1.4 gigatons TNT)

 

the estimated probability of a hit is only 2.2 percent

and is projected for 13 April in 2029

 

is this of interest?

 

the name of the asteroid is 2004 MN4

 

I will get some more information on it in case anyone is interested.

 

(seems unlikely that, after further observations, it will pose a significant risk)

 

[edit: I could not confirm the estimate of 2.2 percent and now find it dubious. the NASA website I checked seems to have revised its estimate just in the past few hours. could this be a false alarm?]

[[Tycho?]]

Huh, its not moving too quickly.

 

Chances of it hitting Earth is around 1/45 according to

 

http://space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

 

Small, but not the sort of small we are used to dealing with. Its over a 2% chance, which makes this more more of a concern than any previous asteroid. Further observations will be carried out soon, so we will soon have a better idea on what the chances actually are. And remember, it will probably miss.

[alt_f13]

There is a higher chance that I will be killed by a meterorite in 25 years than winning the next raffle I enter...

 

scary, actually.

 

Blow it out of space with a nuke; the resulting fragments would pose little threat with that ammount of time to dissipate.

[Ophiolite]

the estimated probability of a hit is only 2.2 percent

and is projected for 13 April in 2029

Only !!!!

I'm not superstitious' date=' but the 13th. 2029 -->2+0+2+9=13

 

[i']April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land [/i]

T.S.Elliot

 

Edit: And it's a Friday!

[5614]

there is always a very small chance of a metorite hitting us - and it is very complex mathematics to calculate its exact path.... it seems a bit unlikely although would be interesting to see what happens if was certainly gonna hit us.

[Gilded]

Well I'll be damned if I get crushed by a 75 000 000 ton meteorite on my birthday! (

[TimeTraveler]

Only !!!!

I'm not superstitious' date=' but the 13th. 2029 -->2+0+2+9=13

 

April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land

T.S.Elliot

 

Edit: And it's a Friday![/quote']

 

This thing has a better chance of hitting us, than I have of getting in a car accident sometime in the next year. Thats a bit scary! (No not because I am a bad driver).

 

Does anyone know who to credit this discovery to? Was it found by one of the teams assigned to NEA research?

[Ophiolite]

It was discovered in June. The orbital data are based on 176 observations. Although that seems a lot, they are all in a half year period only, which must limit accuracy.

[blike]

Now upgraded to 1/37

 

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

[5614]

i still always hold my doubts about these... i mean, how many meteorite are there that come passing by reguarly? when was the last time one hit us? think about how small we are relative to the universe... whats the chances of one hitting us?

 

also think about how hard it'd be to predict the exact path of a meteorite down to the nearest few miles and there's all things like gravity and stuff not to mention the fact that they hardly travel in straight lines.

[Ophiolite]

Pedantic Post:

This potential threat is not a meteorite. A meteorite reaches the surface of the Earth.

This potential threat is not a meteor. Meteors are objects that are made visible as they plunge through the Earth's atmosphere.

This potential threat is not a meteoroid. Meteoroids are meteors and meteorites before they encounter the Earth, and they are less than 100m across.

This potential threat is an asteroid.

[Ophiolite]

i still always hold my doubts about these... i mean' date=' how many meteorite are there that come passing by reguarly? when was the last time one hit us? think about how small we are relative to the universe... [b']whats the chances of one hitting us?[/b]

.

That's the entire point of these assessments.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/index.html

[5614]

i was more questioning the accuracy and the impossible task of that kinda accuracy.

[Ophiolite]

Not impossible, just difficult, and why the results are presented as probabilities, and why those are constantly revised as new data is obtained. Think of the accuracy with which we can place interplanetary probes. Cassini arrived at its designated intercept with Saturn just seconds adrift. That stems from astronomer's excellent observational techniques and effective application of orbital mechanics equations.

[Gilded]

"This potential threat is not a meteorite. A meteorite reaches the surface of the Earth."

 

Ahh, I thought about editing my post and thought to myself "Ophiolite is going to tell me about this". Then I thought "nah...". Either way, if it weighs 75 000 000 tons, you could call it Jimmy and I still wouldn't want it to hit me (especially on my damn birthday, as I already mentioned).

[TimeTraveler]

Interesting related article:

 

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/asteroid_fears_020326-1.html

[Ophiolite]

Good article. I may have mentioned before, the only time I felt really safe from impact was standing on the edge of the Barrringer crater in Arizona. I mean, what are the chances......? On the same basis Coquina must feel secure except when she travels, as she is atop the Chesapeake Bay impact site.

[Gilded]

I recall a lake in Finland being a meteor crater too... just can't remember which, after all we got MANY lakes.

[slickinfinit]

I hope by 2029 we are able to do what the movie armagdeon was able to fake or have a even more efficient way of changing the path of a object in a collision course with our planet, making a way to deflect rather than destroy will be the best solution.

[Ophiolite]

If not it may at least let us get rid of Bruce Willis.

[Al Caponeoni]

Only !!!!

I'm not superstitious' date=' but the 13th. 2029 -->2+0+2+9=13

 

[i']April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land [/i]

T.S.Elliot

 

Edit: And it's a Friday!

 

*shivers abit*

 

Man, that's weird. . . .

 

EDIT: Wait wait wait. http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_update_B_041227.html

 

Problem solved.

[ffsjoe]

As i understand asteroids and the like wiz past us regularly and most we don't know about. Ill get a quote from the book when i have some time to find it.

[Rasori]

My science teacher likes to go on and on about asteroids and meteoroids whizzing by us, unnoticed until afterwards.

He told us last Wednesday that on the 20th an asteroid came by at 200 miles. Dunno how true it is (he's like me, he likes to exaggerate) but that still makes you worry a bit.

Especially since we apparently didn't catch it until after it had passed.

[Kedas]

*shivers abit*

 

Man' date=' that's weird. . . .

 

EDIT: Wait wait wait. http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_update_B_041227.html

 

Problem solved.[/quote']

 

wait a minute

If looking to old data changes the path in a more correct/drastic way, then isn't it likely that an asteroid that now has a very low hit chance would have a very high hit chance when we take the old data into account.

(but we only look at old data when the hit chance is very high)

 

Or to say it in an other way: chances that are based on only a half year of measuring data are wrongly calculated.

the possible previous paths should already be calculated into the chance.

[albymangles]

wait a minute

If looking to old data changes the path in a more correct/drastic way' date=' then isn't it likely that an asteroid that now has a very low hit chance would have a very high hit chance when we take the old data into account.

(but we only look at old data when the hit chance is very high)

[/quote']

more data just means a more accurate prediction of its path, and right now that data is saying it will almost definetely miss Earth; the 'old data' was discovered archived data from other observations