NOAA expects (extremely) active hurricane season

[bascule]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutlook.html

 

Due to unusually warm Atlantic waters and a decrease in wind shear due to El Nino, NOAA expects an "active to extremely active" hurricane season this year. Their specific predictions are as follows:

 

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

 

14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:

• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
  
  
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

[Moontanman]

Oh boy, where I live a tropical depression formed just off shore last week, very early for this. We got some wind and rain, nothing bad...yet. Most people seem to think, and the news concentrates on this, that hurricanes form off the coast of Africa and then come across the Atlantic to hit North and Central America but they also form just off the shore of South Eastern USA in the Gulf Stream as well.

 

It's been several years since we had a major storm, let's hope NOAA is wrong

[D H]

It's been several years since we had a major storm,

2005 is not several years. 2005 was the all-time record in terms of number of tropical storms (they had to use Greek letters), all-time record in terms of number of hurricanes, and one short of the all-time record in terms of number of major hurricanes. 2008 was no slouch either, with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Last summer was a dud primarily because it was an El Nino summer. That El Nino is now gone. We are heading for a La Nina. If the transition occurs sooner than expected, look out for a particularly nasty end to the 2010 hurricane season.

 

let's hope NOAA is wrong

Be careful what you wish for. You just might receive it. There are two ways that NOAA's forecast can be wrong. If NOAA's forecast does turn out to be wrong, I suspect it will because they guessed low rather than high. Conditions are ripe for a particularly nasty hurricane season.

 

Reason #1: Hurricane seasons go through a long cycle of 20-30 years of high activity followed by 20-30 years of low activity, then back to high activity. We are 15 years into the high activity side of the cycle. There is no reason to think things have switched to the low activity side 5 to 15 years earlier than expected.

 

Reason #2: Atlantic sea surface temperatures in May are very telling regarding the strength of the upcoming hurricane season. This year they are not just abnormally high. They are off the charts high.

 

Reason #3: That El Nino that made last year's hurricane season a complete dud is now dead. El Nino 3.4 plummeted from +0.8C to -0.2C during the month of May. Another 0.3C drop and we are in a full-blown La Nina. Just as El Ninos tend to stifle Atlantic hurricanes, La Ninas make conditions ripe for Atlantic hurricanes.

 

 

So, if you live near the Atlantic or Gulf coast, make sure you keep your cars at least half full of gas. Have your escape route planned well ahead of time, but also have alternative routes in mind (those freeways can turn into parking lots). Buy some camping equipment, some water, some iodine to sterilize the water you forgot to buy, and maybe some MREs (el yucko). A propane stove and lantern and plenty of propane can make weeks without power a lot more bearable. Buy a generator so you don't have to toss the contents of your fridge and freezer. Added plus: you can eat steak instead of MREs. Stock up on some canned food. It's not as good as steak but it's not nearly as disgusting as are MREs.