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A new theory


HOMER-16
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thats exactly what you are asking us to do though

 

I'm proposing we look at this with more logic that evidence. I mean, really now, are you telling me we can possibly put half the things on this section to the test as of right now?

 

misapplication of universe. there can only be one universe by definition. also, evidence?

 

Alternate realities work better? And also, I don't know how there could be evidence. There could but not right now. Just with logic I guess we could prove it but...

 

you have completely misunderstood 50:50. 50:50 means there is an equal probability of one thing happening over the other. a yes or no question could have a yes:no probability of 100:1 or 25:32.

 

Break it down to it's simpliced parts. Like with Skeptics situation, lets look at this with descrete mathematics will we?

 

If: a 6-sided die were rolled => x

 

Then: a 1 comes up.=> Y

 

If x, then Y

 

11: 1 true

10: 0 false

01: 1 (We ignore

00: 1 these two)

 

Either, yes it will, or no it won't.

 

infinity:infinity is not 50:50

 

Infinity on one side, and infinity on the other. Either one or the other.

 

yet you put the others into the probability and then mess it up.

 

Where?

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Break it down to it's simpliced parts. Like with Skeptics situation, lets look at this with descrete mathematics will we?

 

If: a 6-sided die were rolled => x

 

Then: a 1 comes up.=> Y

 

If x, then Y

 

11: 1 true

10: 0 false

01: 1 (We ignore

00: 1 these two)

 

Either, yes it will, or no it won't.

 

This is incorrect. Proof: a six sided die can be rolled and land on a two. Therefore, x is true but y is false, so "if x then y" is demonstrated to be false. What you should have said was "x and y" not "if x then y". Regardless, this was an example of a yes/no type of question where the probability was not 50:50, a fact you seem to have completely glossed over.

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I think he's trying to say that the EVENT of 1 not occurring is 50/50, as a one is either rolled, or it isn't. This, of course, shows an ignorance of how probability works, but I can see how he would be confused if he chose to look at it that way.

 

Hopefully someone else can explain *why* that's not a 50/50 scenario...if I tried I'm pretty sure it would end with something like "...and that's why woodpeckers react violently to thrown cell phones".

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you have completely misunderstood 50:50. 50:50 means there is an equal probability of one thing happening over the other. a yes or no question could have a yes:no probability of 100:1 or 25:32.

 

Break it down to it's simpliced parts. Like with Skeptics situation, lets look at this with descrete mathematics will we?

 

If: a 6-sided die were rolled => x

 

Then: a 1 comes up.=> Y

 

If x, then Y

 

11: 1 true

10: 0 false

01: 1 (We ignore

00: 1 these two)

 

Either, yes it will, or no it won't.

 

50/50 Can only works when there are only two options and each option having an equal chance of possibilities.

With a die you have 6 options so you only have about 16.6% chance for a one.

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I know what probability is.

 

My point was, there were two possibilities. Either it comes up a 1. Or it doesn't. One of two possibilities.

 

Now I'll explain in an easier way than my last attempt.

 

We describe alternate realities as different possibilities right? Well, think of a realtiy where we roll a dice.

 

There are two possibilities. We hit a 1, or we don't. If we don't, we hit a two, or we don't.... on and on... Till we get it correct.

 

I hope that's not as confusing. ;)

 

You see, we keep going till it's true.

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it doesn't matter that there are only two possibilities. it is still far more likely that it will not be a one than it landing on a one.

 

probabilities like 50:50 are not based on a set of outcomes but the likely hood of that outcome happening. flipping a coin is 50:50. there are two outcomes, each with equal probability.

 

rolling a dice is not. to have it land on a one you have a 1:6 chance. for it to not land on a one you have 5:6. so putting these together properly for a dice to land on a one you have a 1:6 chance.

 

two outcomes, not 50:50

 

also, there is no evidence for alternate realities. if you want to include them you are going to have to find some evidence for them. not that they are even relevant anyway.

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Yeah, perhaps I should not have brought this up. I should've gone with my gut feeling but... oh well.

 

You all've prooved your point, no point continuing on an impossible argument then.

 

I withdraw my case... until I come up with another stupid idea to get debunked. :D

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