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Pangloss

Who WILL be the next US President?

Who will be the next US President?  

1 member has voted

  1. 1. Who will be the next US President?

    • Barack Obama
      25
    • John McCain
      3


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Who do you think will actually win?

 

(Bascule has a thread started here where you can cast your vote for who you think SHOULD win. This one is for who you think will be declared the winner.)

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http://fivethirtyeight.com presently predicts a 94.9% chance that Obama will win on election day

 

View Poll Results: Who will be the next US President?

This poll will close on 11-04-2008 at 08:56 PM

Barack Obama 17 94.44%

John McCain 1 5.56%

Voters: 18. You have already voted on this poll

 

Not too shabby, eh?

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So far as I know there's no evidence that any vote rigging is taking place, just vote registration. When Mickey Mouse shows up to vote, he will have to have more than large ears to get into a voting booth.

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obama will win by Vote Rigging.

 

Not that I'm accusing them of anything, but the Republicans are in a far better position to rig a vote than the Democrats, considering the political affiliations of manufacturers of US e-voting machines, namely Diebold.

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Not that I'm accusing them of anything

 

Well the 11,000 lawyers filling the hotels around me right now will probably think of something.

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The newest Simpsons episode's intro was hilarious. :D

"Six votes for President McCain."

"Hey, I only meant one of those votes for McCain... this machine is rigged!"

 

Anyway, the statistics support Obama's victory to such an extent that should he lose some people are likely to expel blocks of masonry-related ceramic material from their rectal cavities, so to speak.

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Well, Nate Silver of 538's final prediction is 348.6 electoral votes for Obama (as he uses a probabilistic model). The most likely outcome according to his model is that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana, which would make for a 353-185 win for Obama.

 

Karl Rove projects Obama will lose North Carolina, for a 338-200 win.

 

I'm guessing one of these two projections is correct.

 

And neither were right... Obama won Indiana, which 538 predicted a 30% chance of, but neither rove nor 538 picked

 

Well, the final results are in... Obama wins 364-173 which is more than 538's projections

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I think the amount of people who voted for him is more impressive than his win.

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Okay, I'm wrong again. One of Nebraska's split electoral votes ended up going to Obama, for a final total of 365-173

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