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YT2095

1,2,3,4,5,6. E.S.P Experiment!

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OK. but 87% for one try has no meaning at all.

You would have to try let say 100 times and then make an average otherwise it just coincidence. (one try could have any result, maybe they tried 10 times and broadcasted the best one)

 

(BTW, I was unsuccessful to get in an IRC channel, or whatever you call it)

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it was repeated several times, the avg was 87%, It`s my fault, I didn`t explain that part, sorry :)

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Was there a reference group/test?

 

BTW explain/refer how 87% was calculated.

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no reference group? it wasn`t needed, the probability worked out at 50/50 if it was worked on random guessing alone.

 

then using the audience, the test was done (I think there were % tests, but I know they took place during the TV adverts as it was done live), I`m not sure how they worked it out and can only assume they had to do it correctly because too many people would have complained and pointed it out at the time.

so I can`t really answer all your question for you (It was about 18 months ago we watched it as well).

all I know is that it was considerably higher WITH audience participation, than it would have been by pure random :)

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"WITH audience participation"

 

Since I saw that program about secrets of magicians I don't see any value in audience even the camera crew is in it most of the time they say no videocamera tricks used but they work together with the magicians.

 

50/50 means they compare TWO things?!

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for a start it wasn`t about secret magicians, this what about Psyhchics and Skeptics, it covered all sorts of things from pshchologists posing as mystics and getting great results to lottery numbers.

and yes I agree in a simple system (heads or tails) 50/50 is the baseline for random occurance in a binary probability.

The probability of these numbers coming up naturaly was given the 50/50 baseline for the simple reason that if NON of the balls had shown up, that would be equaly as significant a result.

imagine we toss a coin, heads tails for 100 times, and each time I say heads. the chances are that I will be right 50 times.

if I guess randomly, it would still be a 50/50 chance and so I`de probably get 50 right.

ok, now if I guessed randomly and got 80 right, that would show something at play. as it would if I only got 20 right.

and so the baseline was set at 50/50. just to make it simple to the people to understand, don`t ask me the maths behind it, I don`t remmember nor was I interested. I just know that those were the basic principals :)

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There's a very healthy "alarm bell" response that goes off in the mathematician's head whenever he sees the odds given as "50/50" ;)

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I`de have to agree, but I think it was just coined that way for the benefit of the audience, rather than expresing it in term of negative integers had the experiment shown that it didn`t only NOT work, but in fact swung it to the opposite and had reverse effect if you see my point. anyway, regardless of that, the numbers are still on today as they were last week (but I was offline). i`ll stick to the 10 week idea, just in case there is any residual Psychic energy floating about from the 1`st 3 weeks LOL ;)

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YT2095 said in post # :

for a start it wasn`t about secret magicians, this what about Psyhchics and Skeptics, it covered all sorts of things from pshchologists posing as mystics and getting great results to lottery numbers.

and yes I agree in a simple system (heads or tails) 50/50 is the baseline for random occurance in a binary probability.

The probability of these numbers coming up naturaly was given the 50/50 baseline for the simple reason that if NON of the balls had shown up, that would be equaly as significant a result.

imagine we toss a coin, heads tails for 100 times, and each time I say heads. the chances are that I will be right 50 times.

if I guess randomly, it would still be a 50/50 chance and so I`de probably get 50 right.

ok, now if I guessed randomly and got 80 right, that would show something at play. as it would if I only got 20 right.

and so the baseline was set at 50/50. just to make it simple to the people to understand, don`t ask me the maths behind it, I don`t remmember nor was I interested. I just know that those were the basic principals :)

 

Actually, it's only statistically significant if you get 4 or fewer right or wrong, by the standard 10% two tailed significance test.

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