Hades Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 http://channels.netscape.com/whatsnew/default.jsp?story=20060416-0700 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 17, 2006 Share Posted April 17, 2006 lol. thats a joke right? just off his basic facts, theres a 50% chance god doesnt exist at all, which sort of ruins his whole calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Demosthenes- Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 lol. thats a joke right? just off his basic facts' date=' there's a 50% chance god doesn't exist at all, which sort of ruins his whole calculation.[/quote'] Yeah, there isn't a 50% chance God exists. That's just an arbitrary probability pulled out of the air. It's astronomically unlikely, it's pure insanity to say that there is a 1 in 2 chance. Not to mention that even assuming all of his probabilities were right, the math is wrong. What we have here is a group of people who want to believe really bad, but can't. So they try to make up some crap about how it's mathematical so they can pretend it's proven fact, because they are unable to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 Yeah' date=' there isn't a 50% chance God exists. That's just an arbitrary probability pulled out of the air. It's astronomically unlikely, it's pure insanity to say that there is a 1 in 2 chance. Not to mention that even assuming all of his probabilities were right, the math is wrong. What we have here is a group of people who want to believe really bad, but can't. So they try to make up some crap about how it's mathematical so they can pretend it's proven fact, because they are unable to believe.[/quote'] 50% chance that god exists is perfectly fine... given the fact that there can be no evidence for or against god (note, when i say god, i mean any all powerful being, not necesarily the christian god) whether or not he exists is purely a guess, so since there are two options, 50/50 is just fine. what we have here is the lowest form of life on the planet. those who have just such incredible faith in their all knowing all powerful god that they KNOW he exists. but fail to realise that there is no evidence for or against it, and also fail to realise that the point of faith is to believe WITHOUT evidence. everything ive ever heard from these wackos is that your supposed to blindly trust god... so quit trying to prove hes there you morons. just trust. their horrible christians, and horrible scientists. i can respect people on both sides of this particular argument... but people who cant even get one or the other right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 50% chance that god exists is perfectly fine... given the fact that there can be no evidence for or against god (note' date=' when i say god, i mean any all powerful being, not necesarily the christian god) whether or not he exists is purely a guess, so since there are two options, 50/50 is just fine.[/quote'] It's completely arbitrary and therefore meaningless. A false dichotomy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltanova Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 how is this mathematics? in laymans terms, it uses numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insane_alien Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 yes but it uses the numbers wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 It's completely arbitrary and therefore meaningless. A false dichotomy. how is it a false dichotomy? what option is there besides a god existing and a god not existing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swansont Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 how is it a false dichotomy? what option is there besides a god existing and a god not existing? Sorry, I shouldn't have used terminology describing a logical fallacy. The "falseness" in this case is in the arbitrary assignment of the probabilities. If I said I was building a machine, and it can either work or not work, does that mean it automatically has a 50% chance of working? (or, better yet, a perpetual motion machine). edit to add: It brings to mind the joke about how there are two types of people: those that divide people into two groups and those that don't. There is nothing inherent in that to suggest that the division is 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timo Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 edit to add: It brings to mind the joke about how there are two types of people: those that divide people into two groups and those that don't. There is nothing inherent in that to suggest that the division is 50-50. 72% of all percentages given are made up out of thin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Demosthenes- Posted April 18, 2006 Share Posted April 18, 2006 50% chance that god exists is perfectly fine... given the fact that there can be no evidence for or against god (note, when i say god, i mean any all powerful being, not necesarily the christian god) whether or not he exists is purely a guess, so since there are two options, 50/50 is just fine. That is absolutely absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 Sorry' date=' I shouldn't have used terminology describing a logical fallacy. The "falseness" in this case is in the arbitrary assignment of the probabilities. If I said I was building a machine, and it can either work or not work, does that mean it automatically has a 50% chance of working? (or, better yet, a perpetual motion machine). edit to add: It brings to mind the joke about how there are two types of people: those that divide people into two groups and those that don't. There is nothing inherent in that to suggest that the division is 50-50.[/quote'] the reason its ok for it to be a 50 50 chance is because there are NO factors swinging it either direction as there can be no evidence for or against god. whereas a perpetual motion machine has very clear reasons why it wont work to anyone with a solid understanding of physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ydoaPs Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 "4. The chance of Christ's resurrection not being reported by the gospels has a probability of one in 10."<===how? "5. Considering all these factors together, there is a one in 1,000 chance that the resurrection is not true."<==how? (1/2)(1/2)(9/10)=9/40........that's far from 97% even assuming all of the assumptions were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klaynos Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 the reason its ok for it to be a 50 50 chance is because there are NO factors swinging it either direction as there can be no evidence for or against god. Prove it.... Just because we don't know there are no factors doesn't mean there arn't any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hades Posted April 19, 2006 Author Share Posted April 19, 2006 if the chance of any outcome being 50% in a yes or no situation, that would mean i stand a chance of getting laid 1 out of every 2 girls i blindly ask on the street. in reality, someone did this and the number was 1 out of 100. but who knows it couldve been a crackwhore throwin off the curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ydoaPs Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 if the chance of any outcome being 50% in a yes or no situation, that would mean i stand a chance of getting laid 1 out of every 2 girls i blindly ask on the street. in reality, someone did this and the number was 1 out of 100. but who knows it couldve been a crackwhore throwin off the curve. the chance of you getting some from one girl is 1/2. there are(for simplicity's sake) 6 billion people in the world. for simplicity's sake, we're going to say that half of them are female. your chances of getting laid are (1/2)3 billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In My Memory Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 Hades, This claim has actually been around for quite some time. Michael Shermer wrote a response to it in Scientific American demonstrating that the arbitrary percentages and numbers can works out to prove anything the statistician wants. Using the same methodology as Swinburne who showed that Christs resurrection is 67% certain, Shermer showed that Christs resurrection is just about 2%. http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&articleID=000E350F-2F66-10CF-AD3D83414B7F0000&colID=13 Demosthenes, Yeah, there isn't a 50% chance God exists. That's just an arbitrary probability pulled out of the air. It's astronomically unlikely, it's pure insanity to say that there is a 1 in 2 chance. I think the number is based on something called a Bayseian Probability, where if you start out knowing no other facts about the universe (maximum ignorance), apart from that claim that Gods either exists or he doesnt, then its fair to start out saying that Gods existence is 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 Prove it.... Just because we don't know there are no factors doesn't mean there arn't any... in this particular case we do know... for example. my friend started into his geology class at college this year. his teacher is obsessed with disproving god through geology. one of his explainations involved a rock that COULDNT have been made, around the rocks it was buried with, in 7 days. that man is an idiot. its GOD. very simple explaination... god made that rock the way it is to test your faith... please, tell me one kind of actual evidence that couldnt be completely tossed aside by that logic. and on the flip side... show me one thing in the universe that absolutely COULD NOT happen by random chance, ei. without the pressence of a designer. i didnt say we DONT have evidence for or against god, i said you CANT have evidence for or against that kind of concept. it counters anything we could find by virtue of the fact that it is beyond our understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 19, 2006 Share Posted April 19, 2006 if the chance of any outcome being 50% in a yes or no situation, that would mean i stand a chance of getting laid 1 out of every 2 girls i blindly ask on the street. in reality, someone did this and the number was 1 out of 100. but who knows it couldve been a crackwhore throwin off the curve. this situation is different in that there ARE factors swaying the probability. that is, we know that most girls will not have sex with someone just because they asked. we have more information than in the other question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hades Posted April 20, 2006 Author Share Posted April 20, 2006 the factors are poppycock. if he says one in two god exists, its one in two the girl will succumb, using that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6431hoho Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 This stunning conclusion was made based on a series of complex calculations grounded in the following logic: Is that sarcasm? 1. The probably of God's existence is one in two. That is, God either exists or doesn't. If that's 50:50 chances then since: 1. There is no limit to imagination 2. Including creating random creatures 3. Therefore, there are infinite/2 (infinite) number of any possibilities in the world? edit: sorry, let me clarify: If I said that unicorns, dragons, hydras, hippogriff etc. existed some will inevitably come into existence just like if I named two different gods, one would likely exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Demosthenes- Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 the reason its ok for it to be a 50 50 chance is because there are NO factors swinging it either direction as there can be no evidence for or against god. There are an ifinite amount of other possibilities other than God' date=' making the chances [u']1 IN INFINITY[/u]. Good odds eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callipygous Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 the factors are poppycock. if he says one in two god exists, its one in two the girl will succumb, using that logic. the circumstances of any particular situation are the only thing you can use to determine probability. your using completely seperate logic, but please, feel free to continue saying its the same without any explaination. There are an ifinite amount of other possibilities other than God, making the chances 1 IN INFINITY. what options explain the creation of earth and man kind besides a creator or random chance/evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ydoaPs Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 what options explain the creation of earth and man kind besides a creator or random chance/evolution? 1)FSM, pink invisible fairies, the magic elephant that lives in the trunk of my car, etc. 2)evolution!=random. it is anything but random. 3)evolution!=big bang!=abiogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ydoaPs Posted April 20, 2006 Share Posted April 20, 2006 what options explain the creation of earth and man kind besides a creator or random chance/evolution? 1)FSM, pink invisible fairies, the magic elephant that lives in the trunk of my car, etc. 2)evolution!=random. it is anything but random. 3)evolution!=big bang!=abiogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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