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War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?


iNow
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Intelligence suggests Russia is planning to invade Ukraine in January apparently with the intent to take it over. Likewise, China has been stepping up plans to seize Taiwan. Have been talking about it for years, but seem to sense more opportunity in todays global political climate.

Should US respond if/when either of those two things happen? If so, how and for how long? Does your answer change if both events happen at the same time?

Game it out…

Edited by iNow
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That seems very worrying  and it would not be unexpected if Russia and China were to hang up on USA.

"The West" should be inclined to buttress USAs attempts to repel any dictatorial attempts at expansion but these regimes have apparently been able ,with their thuggery to keep their populations fairly docile  and accepting  of their servitude.

 

On the other side of the scales USA is openly divided and very likely  to acquiesce in any such expansion provided it can be sold as limited in extent. It has enough problems mounting a defense of it's own democratic  acquisitions  .

 

Also its credibility amongst its allies is in the deficit column.

 

On the plus side there is the hope that Russia and China will once again succumb to over extension of empire.

As to how this administration should react,I wish I had a good idea but it seems I don't. 

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2 hours ago, geordief said:

USA is openly divided and very likely  to acquiesce in any such expansion provided it can be sold as limited in extent. It has enough problems mounting a defense of it's own democratic  acquisitions  .

Exactly. This plus the increasing rise of authoritarian tendencies and simple minded support for narrow populist messages across the planet has me wondering what happens next and what a weakened US could even achieve. 

Another challenge is that people (John Q. Public) are so distracted and occupied by catnip social issues like anti mask and anti vax and abortion and inflation and related topics that they never even bother to engage with the actual big deal issues like hundreds of thousands of troops preparing to invade sovereign countries. 

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Our commitment to Taiwan, a smallish island that exports lychee nuts and which is snugged up next to China (Mike Phelps could probably swim out there), seems shaky at best.   The loss would be more symbolic than strategic is my guess.  Ukraine, with its central location, and having major NG and mineral resources, and being one of the planet's major grain exporters, and having received some serious commitments from the US and European allies, and being headed towards NATO membership, might be a more significant bone of contention, and maybe even rise above our domestic catnip issues.  It will be ugly when it heats up.  But I'm not scanning the real estate ads in Auckland yet.  Maybe I should.  

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2 hours ago, TheVat said:

Our commitment to Taiwan, a smallish island that exports lychee nuts and which is snugged up next to China (Mike Phelps could probably swim out there), seems shaky at best. 

The characterization is a bit strange as agricultural exports are barely a blip in Taiwan's economy, its largest exports have been electronics for a long while. The trade volume with the US is not huge, but still totaled 100 billion which is about 70-80 billion less compared to Germany or UK. This would still roughly place Taiwan among the top 10 US trading partners.

I would also argue that especially due to its location Taiwan would be a strategic asset. 

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2 hours ago, TheVat said:

Ukraine, with its central location, and having major NG and mineral resources, and being one of the planet's major grain exporters, and having received some serious commitments from the US and European allies, and being headed towards NATO membership, might be a more significant bone of contention, and maybe even rise above our domestic catnip issues.  It will be ugly when it heats up.  But I'm not scanning the real estate ads in Auckland yet.  Maybe I should.  

In 2014, Putin could have seized the whole of Ukraine, but limited himself to Crimea. Putin only needs the opportunity to export gas to Europe. He can send troops into Ukraine only in response to Ukraine's actions, which may be the offensive of Ukrainian troops on Donetsk or the blockade of Tiraspol.

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3 hours ago, TheVat said:

Taiwan, a smallish island that exports lychee nuts

Up to 90% of semiconductors used by tech companies like AMD, Apple, NVidia, Qualcomm, etc. rely on Taiwanese manufacturing.

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7 hours ago, geordief said:

but these regimes have apparently been able ,with their thuggery to keep their populations fairly docile  and accepting  of their servitude.

Where America has Manifest Destiny, China has the Mandate of Heaven- they have a fundamentally different attitude to government than America, a more trusting one based on Confucian principles. Similar to evolved systems, neither is 'correct' but has benefits/risks. One more prone dictatorships, but also easier to harmonise to a purpose: if Covid 19 had been more virulent the benefits of the latter would be more clear.

The Chinese people have been rebelling against governments at least a thousand years before the country that established America even existed, so I wouldn't worry about them being passive - as long as the government is fulfilling its end of the Mandate, the Chinese people are content, and why wouldn't they be? We might disagree with their position but we don't get to impose our view on them and to mistake it as docility is just to misunderstand their mindset.

China's military aggression in and around the South China Sea needs to be understood in its historical context - China still remembers its utter humiliation by numerous Western powers and Japan. The Chinese people generally support their government in establishing a strong military presence around its territory to ensure that never happens again. 

If the West wants to limit China's influence they should stop bullying nations and start helping them. For instance, Australia has been harassing East Timor for decades in order to force access to oil fields, even pulling out of the UN convention on the Law of the Sea to avoid a binding ruling at the international court of justice. Now East Timor has invited China to help build up their infrastructure, giving China a presence right on Australia's coast.

 

3 hours ago, TheVat said:

The loss would be more symbolic than strategic is my guess. 

Taiwan has about a quarter of the semiconductor market. China would control over a third if it swallowed Taiwan.

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So oil and minerals out of Ukraine and semiconductors out of Taiwan. Any sanctions imposed if either get annexed would only hurt our own pocketbooks and our own economy in the US. 

So, sanctions as a response seem unlikely. Does NATO declare war to push back if this happens? If the US goes in alone, do other nations follow like in Iraq?

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I clearly need to use the winky emoji.  The lychee nuts was a bit of dry humor.   I am not sure that China, which needs healthy trade with us, would use annexation to put a crimp in our chip supply.  If they want to do that, they are already positioned to do so.  

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16 hours ago, iNow said:

Intelligence suggests Russia is planning to invade Ukraine in January apparently with the intent to take it over. Likewise, China has been stepping up plans to seize Taiwan. Have been talking about it for years, but seem to sense more opportunity in todays global political climate.

Should US respond if/when either of those two things happen? If so, how and for how long? Does your answer change if both events happen at the same time?

Game it out…

I can help you with an answer but firstly I need to know some answers . 

1)Is China intending to invade Taiwan on moral grounds ? 

2)Is Russia intending to invade the Ukraine on moral grounds ? 

Please state reasons why China and Russia are planning to take control of these countries ? 

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I cannot imagine the US going to war with either China or Russia unless the attack is against the US directly. On the other hand I would expect substantial assistance to Ukraine. We did it with Afghanistan (and lots of other places) and supporting the targets of Russia has been a successful response. With respect to Taiwan I'm just not sure. It is not difficult to understand China's position that Taiwan is already part of China and they are finally getting around to bringing the province under control.

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Ukraine is not going to happen it's all A ruse they won't everything is wrong on geopolitical map. And the russian won't do nothing if they are not sure full blown war will happen all of this. It's to distract the people A war that could happen is USA and China. Something like Korea conflict or Taiwan but really this will not happen unless huge economic depression happens. Were in one but things will not happen until major disaster like Joe Biden ousted, Putin being ousted, or Xi Jing Ping then it could happen in months World War lll. But if something doesn't happen it is all television talking.

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I have done some quick research and it sounds like Taiwan committed ''mutiny'' against China and China want to take back control because of the maritime border and close approximity . 

As for Russia , Ukraine , that sounds like  speculation . 

Why doesn't America politically intervene and be the negotiator, making no threats but reasonable compromise ? 

Example Chinese Navy and air, ''free'' access to the waters and skies to show there is nothing going  on . Have Taiwan agree to let Chinese troops camp there etc , quite easy to show China that Taiwan isn't going to ''stitch'' China up . 

Also China would boost the Thaiwan economy , whats the problem they are neigbours . The only thing to argue is local laws really . 

 

 

 

Edited by Pbob
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32 minutes ago, Pbob said:

I can help you with an answer but firstly I need to know some answers . 

1)Is China intending to invade Taiwan on moral grounds ? 

2)Is Russia intending to invade the Ukraine on moral grounds ? 

Please state reasons why China and Russia are planning to take control of these countries ? 

Open your own thread. That’s not the topic here. 

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The world leaders may like to point out to China that their economy is over if they go hurting innocent civilians in war games . Their economy will be restricted to their own economy with no export of anything . 

 

 

1 minute ago, iNow said:

Open your own thread. That’s not the topic here. 

Don't ask a question then if you don't want answers . 

 

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21 minutes ago, Arikel88 said:

Ukraine is not going to happen it's all A ruse they won't everything is wrong on geopolitical map. And the russian won't do nothing

Your overconfidence in your opinion is staggering. You speak as if your assertions are fact. Do you know next weeks lotto numbers, too?

1 minute ago, Pbob said:

Don't ask a question then if you don't want answers . 

You shared no answers. You explicitly stated you wouldn’t answer me until I answered your total red herring questions back to me. 

It’s be great if you’d stop trolling the thread.  

23 minutes ago, Arikel88 said:

It's to distract the people A war that could happen is USA and China. <…> will not happen until major disaster like Joe Biden ousted, Putin being ousted, or Xi Jing Ping then it could happen in months World War lll. But if something doesn't happen it is all television talking.

Again, not the topic here. The premise of the thread is that it already happened, what happens next. I hope this clarifies. 

25 minutes ago, Pbob said:

The only thing to argue is local laws really

Perhaps, but AGAIN… not relevant here. See OP and thread title if you remain confused. 

6 minutes ago, Pbob said:

The world leaders may like to point out to China that their economy is over if they go hurting innocent civilians

I appreciate this makes sense academically, but would never happen in reality. Daily life is too dependent on them. Hoping to remain focused on realistic responses that aren’t akin to saying a magical unicorn will solve it. 

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28 minutes ago, zapatos said:

With respect to Taiwan I'm just not sure. It is not difficult to understand China's position that Taiwan is already part of China and they are finally getting around to bringing the province under control.

Yep.  I lean towards China as having a natural geopolitical interest in Taiwan.  And if the US can think that what was an independent Polynesian kingdom until 1898, Hawaii, 2000 miles offshore, stolen by western businessmen, is somehow under US sovereignty, then it's hard to see how we can deny another nation's claim to an island 80 miles off their shore that was long part of them (going back to the 1600s) ,and is 95% Han ethnically.   It would be like China telling us we can't claim Nantucket.

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The history of Taiwan is an interesting one.
Chiang Kai Shek was a Nationalist, who fought along the Allies in WW2, but was defeated in the civil war of 1948 by Mao Zedong's forces.
He, and his followers retreated to the island of Taiwan, to set up their own Government.
While fairly brutal at first, he grew Taiwan's economy and democracy, to be elected president 5 times to 6 year terms.

The Republic of Taiwan has always been a thorn and an embarassement for the Chinese Communists, but until current times, re-taking the island would have totally destroyed it and rendered it worthless.
I still don't think they can afford to try to take it forcibly, but with their economic might, they may be able to pressure other countries into not giving assistance, or recognition, to the island state, so as to re-take them without using force.

Either way is a shame, as Taiwan will either be destroyed, or suffer the fate of Hong Kong.

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1 hour ago, iNow said:

 

 

I appreciate this makes sense academically, but would never happen in reality. Daily life is too dependent on them. Hoping to remain focused on realistic responses that aren’t akin to saying a magical unicorn will solve it. 

Oh please don't get upset over nothing . I can not predict the future although space-time is transparent , the lottery numbers are random , each ball having a probability of 1/t in making an appearance . I can do a scientific analysis of the lottery numbers and pick the best chances but that isn't knowing , it also has the chance of failure . 

However , many Chinese people live in America and China and America realistic have strong ties due to movies and other influences . 

I am sure China and the USA don't want actually to war with each other so that leaves Taiwan in the middle .  Taiwan need to see they are neighbours with China and both can trade with the USA , an agreement should be reached where Taiwan keep certain independence , that simple . 

 

Edited by Pbob
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No idea, INow.
Our Prime Minister likes to talk the game, but doesn't have the means, or the stomach, to back it up.
Canada is, as a result, not taken seriously in international matters.

Edited by MigL
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