War Games: Russia Takes Ukraine, China Takes Taiwan. US Response?

[dimreepr]

1 hour ago, geordief said:

It has occurred to me that Putin 's demise may be brought about just  by his accepting the offer of face to face negotiations with Zelensky. **

 

He continues to impress-no donkey he.

 

Here's hoping.

If Putin brushes himself into a corner, he'll just walk all over the floor.

While he continues to blame the pool guy...

Edited March 22, 2022 by dimreepr

[Sensei]

On 3/21/2022 at 5:09 PM, swansont said:

Please let's not pretend that a RTS game has any valid relevance to this. 

Astronauts, airplane pilots, counter-terrorists, Formula One drivers, army officers, etc. - all have to learn.... the modern way (after 1990) is to play computer games with simulated battles, simulated hostage rescue in Counter-Strike, simulated airplane flight, and so on.. The longer people train, the better experience they have in a subject they train. If they make a mistake, the simulated plane crashes instead of the real one. If an army officer loses a war in a simulated game, he gains knowledge, experience, can learn from what was done incorrectly.. Hours, hundreds hours, thousands hours, of experience that people from the old ages were not able to get in their lifetime..

On 3/21/2022 at 5:09 PM, swansont said:

If you mess up you might not win the game.

If you make a mistake, you learn from what you did wrong and start over so you have a chance to not repeat it again... You gain experience, which is impossible to gain in the real world.. because you're dead..

 

On 3/21/2022 at 5:09 PM, swansont said:

I've played a turn-based (rather than real-time) strategy game and the decision to go to war and the details of how you go about that has is in no way preparation for the real thing for any rational adult.

Turn-based strategy is completely different than RTS..

A typical RTS has a fairly advanced economy, i.e. you have forest, quarry, iron/silver/gold mines, you need wood to build houses (at the beginning of the play), you need stone to build houses (a more advanced one or walls), you need iron to build a bridge, tank or airplane, etc. etc. People need to eat, so there are farmers, cows, pigs, etc. Multiply that by a thousand to get a true picture of the complexity of any modern RTS.. and yes, simulated RTS units also have morale, for at least 25 years..

(In one of my favorite RTSs from 20 years ago, hops were needed to make beer, which when distributed to people raised the morale of the population )

 

Do you really not see the similarity of generals surrounding a dictator, planning their next moves, on a map with little figures representing them and enemy units? (apart from humanitarian aspects, complexity and unexpected influences e.g. help from 3rd party side)

..if reconnaissance of enemy forces is working (in the time of satellites, it should be top-notch), they know in advance when they are sending soldiers to their deaths in a suicidal mission and a pointless move that cannot succeed..

Their units are just little figures on a map (or arrows)..

In an RTS, you have immediate feedback from the opponent or from the A.I., which behaves accordingly to the force set in the options.

 

The officers of the Russian army behave as if they had no basic experience. Officers received their ranks not on the basis of their experience on the battlefields, but because of their subordination to the V.P..

Edited March 23, 2022 by Sensei

[MigL]

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

On 3/21/2022 at 12:09 PM, swansont said:

Please let's not pretend that a RTS game has any valid relevance to this. 

Astronauts, airplane pilots, counter-terrorists, Formula One drivers, army officers, etc.

Don't forget drone pilots ...

[SergUpstart]

Putin instructed Gazprom to accept payment for gas supplies to Europe exclusively in rubles.

[TheVat]

Apparently, Reagan had his moments of clarity....

https://archive.ph/2022.03.23-132736/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/climate/europe-russia-gas-reagan.html

How this whole dependence on Russian gas/oil got started.  And how US president Reagan tried to stop it.  (I love the archive ph website, handy if you only read a paper intermittently and don't want to subscribe)

[SergUpstart]

9 minutes ago, TheVat said:

How this whole dependence on Russian gas/oil got started.

And why does the whole world depend on the dollar??? Why doesn't it bother you??

[zapatos]

2 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

And why does the whole world depend on the dollar??? Why doesn't it bother you??

Why does it bother you?

[Genady]

An old fable:

A Pan Am 727 flight, waiting for start clearance in Munich , overheard the following:

Lufthansa (in German): “Ground, what is our start clearance time?”

Ground (in English): “If you want an answer you must speak in English.”

Lufthansa (in English): “I am a German, flying a German airplane, in Germany . Why must I speak English?”

Unknown voice from another plane (in a beautiful British accent): “Because you lost the bloody war!”

[TheVat]

38 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

And why does the whole world depend on the dollar??? Why doesn't it bother you??

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/092316/how-us-dollar-became-worlds-reserve-currency.asp

Надеюсь, это поможет.

[swansont]

15 hours ago, Sensei said:

apart from humanitarian aspects,

Which was what I was trying to point out when I said “There is no moral factor in blowing up images on a computer screen”

In a simulation, if there are points for blowing up a school or hospital, you blow it up. That’s not reality, though.

 

15 hours ago, Sensei said:

complexity and unexpected influences e.g. help from 3rd party side

IOW, simulations don’t model things completely. It omits aspects of reality. 

Quote

Astronauts, airplane pilots, counter-terrorists, Formula One drivers, army officers, etc. - all have to learn.... the modern way (after 1990) is to play computer games with simulated battles, simulated hostage rescue in Counter-Strike, simulated airplane flight, and so on.. The longer people train, the better experience they have in a subject they train. If they make a mistake, the simulated plane crashes instead of the real one. If an army officer loses a war in a simulated game, he gains knowledge, experience, can learn from what was done incorrectly.. Hours, hundreds hours, thousands hours, of experience that people from the old ages were not able to get in their lifetime..

You’re moving the goalposts here. You had made claims that a 15-17 year-old could make better decisions because they had more experience than a “true general” by playing RTS games.

Do you think that actual military people don’t do simulations? aka war games? They do. In addition to training that you don’t get with computer games.

 

[Sensei]

2 hours ago, TheVat said:

How this whole dependence on Russian gas/oil got started.

..the war between the Nazi Germany and USSR was started just to get oil and gas from the oil fields and other resources.. the things Nazi Germany badly needed..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi–Soviet_economic_relations_(1934–1941)#Late_1930s_German_raw_materials_crunch

"Germany lacked oil and could only supply 25% of its own needs.[1] Since its main supplier, the United States, would be potentially cut off during a war, Germany had to look to Soviet Union and Romania.[1] Germany suffered from the same supply problems for metal ores such as chrome, tungsten, nickel, molybdenum, and manganese, all of which were needed for hardened steel used in tanks, ships and other war equipment.[1] For example, Germany was almost 100% reliant on imports for chrome, and the loss of South African and Turkish imports alone were a blockade to arise would eliminate 80% of imports.[69] Even for manganese, of which Germany supplied 40% of its needs, the expected British blockade would cut its link to its main outside supplier, South Africa.[1] Germany was 35% self-sufficient for iron ore, but would lose 36% of its previous imported supply on the outbreak of war.[69] Furthermore, Stalin's permission was needed to transit tungsten and molybdenum from China, which required Soviet-controlled rail lines.[1] Meanwhile, the Soviet Union was the world's largest source of manganese, the second largest for chrome and platinum and the third largest supplier of crude oil, iron ore and nickel.[69]"

To remove dependency, and after they saw how weak the USSR army was, after the disastrous winter war with Finland ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War ) Nazi attacked USSR.

A.H.'s inexperience was revealed at Stalingrad (disallowed retreat), and the USSR army took more than 200,000 soldiers in an encirclement ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad#Casualties ). It was a watershed moment in World War II.

European dependency map per country:

 

..and this is how it all started:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignacy_Łukasiewicz

Ignacy Łukasiewicz: "His achievements included the discovery of how to distill kerosene from seep oil, the invention of the modern kerosene lamp (1853), the introduction of the first modern street lamp in Europe (1853), and the construction of the world's first modern oil well (1854)."

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Sensei

[zapatos]

Any thoughts on why we are not seeing Ukrainian special operations taking place in Crimea or over the Russian border? I would imagine they would have an outsized impact as Russian forces would be tied up addressing these sort of 'behind the lines' operations.

I understand that small attacks in, say, Moscow might provoke the Russians beyond what benefit to the Ukrainians might be gained, but in areas that are part of Russia's military staging these attacks might be expected.

[SergUpstart]

1 hour ago, Sensei said:

To remove dependency, and after they saw how weak the USSR army was, after the disastrous winter war with Finland ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War ) Nazi attacked USSR.

The main mistake in planning a war is underestimating the enemy. This also applies to economic warfare.

2 hours ago, zapatos said:

Why does it bother you?

Because Americans, thanks to the monopoly on the issue of world money, can consume more than they produce.

[zapatos]

21 minutes ago, SergUpstart said:

Because Americans, thanks to the monopoly on the issue of world money, can consume more than they produce.

I don't think the word "monopoly" means what you think it means.

Russia consumes more than it produces. That is why they are a net importer of food.

 

[Sensei]

Due to the war, these countries may experience food problems in just a few months:

 

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-war-to-compound-hunger-poverty-in-africa-experts-say/6492430.html

"Experts warn the war in Ukraine could increase hunger and food insecurity for some people in Africa. Most African countries import wheat and vegetable oil from Ukraine and Russia, a region now engulfed in conflict since Russia invaded its neighbor."

"The United Nations says Russia and Ukraine produce 53% of the world’s sunflowers and seeds, and 27% of the world’s wheat."
"The study shows at least 25 African countries import a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and 15 of them import more than half from those two countries."

https://www.gonewsindia.com/latest-news/international/african-arab-countries-food-dependence-on-russia-ukraine-28571

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Sensei

[iNow]

5 hours ago, zapatos said:

Any thoughts on why we are not seeing Ukrainian special operations taking place in Crimea or over the Russian border?

My immediate thought is that we’re not seeing them because they’re covert (i.e. they very well may be happening outside of our awareness). 

Another thought is that humans are in short supply and very badly needed along the front lines. Basically, although they have teams of plumbers and electricians at the ready, right now the house itself is on fire so all hands are on deck trying to extinguish the flames first. They’re otherwise occupied. 

[Sensei]

27 minutes ago, iNow said:

My immediate thought is that we’re not seeing them because they’re covert (i.e. they very well may be happening outside of our awareness). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millerovo_air_base_attack

@zapatos

Edited March 23, 2022 by Sensei

[J.C.MacSwell]

3 hours ago, Sensei said:

Due to the war, these countries may experience food problems in just a few months:

 

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-war-to-compound-hunger-poverty-in-africa-experts-say/6492430.html

"Experts warn the war in Ukraine could increase hunger and food insecurity for some people in Africa. Most African countries import wheat and vegetable oil from Ukraine and Russia, a region now engulfed in conflict since Russia invaded its neighbor."

"The United Nations says Russia and Ukraine produce 53% of the world’s sunflowers and seeds, and 27% of the world’s wheat."
"The study shows at least 25 African countries import a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and 15 of them import more than half from those two countries."

https://www.gonewsindia.com/latest-news/international/african-arab-countries-food-dependence-on-russia-ukraine-28571

 

 I'm already trying to bike more to stores, at least on the weekend for small items (and planning vehicle routes more carefully otherwise. I now see myself dieting with added incentive.

All, in part at least, feeling guilty having Ukrainians fighting my/our war for me, considering how they fight alone.

I know Canada doesn't import Russian oil or gas, but it's a global market. 

Also a good time to implement much needed carbon taxes...(which proves why I'm not a politician and would never get any votes)

But as I said earlier (before Elon Musk tweeted it) I'm also for temporary increases in fossil fuel production. 

7 hours ago, zapatos said:

Any thoughts on why we are not seeing Ukrainian special operations taking place in Crimea or over the Russian border? I would imagine they would have an outsized impact as Russian forces would be tied up addressing these sort of 'behind the lines' operations.

I understand that small attacks in, say, Moscow might provoke the Russians beyond what benefit to the Ukrainians might be gained, but in areas that are part of Russia's military staging these attacks might be expected.

Agree with that, as much as it might be deserved in some respects.

Zelensky has done an absolutely incredible job of taking the highest road possible. He's relentlessly challenged everyone he thinks can possibly make a difference while defiantly appealing for peace...including the citizens of Russia. One of his key points has been that Ukraine has never been a threat to Russia and that the invasion is totally unwarranted.

6 hours ago, zapatos said:

I don't think the word "monopoly" means what you think it means.

Russia consumes more than it produces. That is why they are a net importer of food.

 

Of course that's in currency value and not mass or food calories.

But it emphasizes what the self serving and corrupt Putin et gang has done for their economy, which despite being by over double the largest country in the World, and almost 4 times Canada's population, it has a lwer GDP (and dropping faster than ever)

Some of the last public thoughts (just last month) of Madeleine Albright on Putin, first US female Secretary of State and refugee from Soviet controlled Czechoslovakia:

“Instead of paving Russia’s path to greatness, invading Ukraine would ensure Mr. Putin’s infamy by leaving his country diplomatically isolated, economically crippled and strategically vulnerable in the face of a stronger, more united Western alliance,” Albright wrote in an essay in The New York Times on the eve of the war last month. “Ukraine is entitled to its sovereignty, no matter who its neighbors happen to be. In the modern era, great countries accept that, and so must Mr. Putin,” Albright wrote. “That is the message undergirding recent Western diplomacy. It defines the difference between a world governed by the rule of law and one answerable to no rules at all.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/23/politics/albright-putin-russia-ukraine-analysis/index.html

Edited March 24, 2022 by J.C.MacSwell

[StringJunky]

14 hours ago, swansont said:

Which was what I was trying to point out when I said “There is no moral factor in blowing up images on a computer screen”

In a simulation, if there are points for blowing up a school or hospital, you blow it up. That’s not reality, though.

 

IOW, simulations don’t model things completely. It omits aspects of reality. 

You’re moving the goalposts here. You had made claims that a 15-17 year-old could make better decisions because they had more experience than a “true general” by playing RTS games.

Do you think that actual military people don’t do simulations? aka war games? They do. In addition to training that you don’t get with computer games.

 

I read something interesting to me about that, regarding strategy: Amateurs talk strategy and professionals talk logisics.

The Russians don't seem to have learned that  in Ukraine. Unless the RTS game includes logistics decision-making, one is not going to get far IRL. Reading about the current NATO exercise in Norway, one of the purposes mentioned was to do with  them figuring out the logistics in that scenario and maintaining supply lines.

[bangstrom]

16 hours ago, Genady said:

An old fable:

An old WWII RAF pilot became a commercial airline pilot when he retired from the military. The airport at Frankfort was notorious for its mix of runways and complicated landing patterns.

On the pilot’s first flight from London to Frankfort, he was having difficulty following the complicated instructions he was getting from the tower so the frustrated Air Traffic Control officer asked, “Haven’t you ever flown to Frankfort before?”

The pilot answered, “Yes, but I never had to land.”

[swansont]

5 hours ago, StringJunky said:

I read something interesting to me about that, regarding strategy: Amateurs talk strategy and professionals talk logisics.

The Russians don't seem to have learned that  in Ukraine. Unless the RTS game includes logistics decision-making, one is not going to get far IRL. Reading about the current NATO exercise in Norway, one of the purposes mentioned was to do with  them figuring out the logistics in that scenario and maintaining supply lines.

I think perhaps that a RTS game won't incorporate the phenomenon of "poorly-maintained equipment because the system has been looted by corrupt higher-ups and widespread incompetence/apathy" along with scores of other impacts that can't be programmed in to a simulation. So even if logistics matters it's unlikely that it goes into the level of detail that real people encounter in real situations

There are computer games where you just happen to find ammo and 'health' hidden behind odd-looking bricks in a wall, which is great for game play but not realistic at all, though the phenomenon of finding enemy equipment abandoned might be under-represented.

4 hours ago, bangstrom said:

An old WWII RAF pilot became a commercial airline pilot when he retired from the military. The airport at Frankfort was notorious for its mix of runways and complicated landing patterns.

On the pilot’s first flight from London to Frankfort, he was having difficulty following the complicated instructions he was getting from the tower so the frustrated Air Traffic Control officer asked, “Haven’t you ever flown to Frankfort before?”

The pilot answered, “Yes, but I never had to land.”

Douglas Bader, WWII RAF pilot, gave a talk to a prestigious girls’ school, and was describing the German planes attacking him: "I had two f*ckers to the left of me, two f*ckers to the right" The horrified schoolmistress interrupted with, “Ladies, the Fokker was a type of German aircraft,” to which Bader replied: “That’s as may be, Madam, but these f*ckers were in Messerschmitts.”

 

(Paraphrased. there are various versions of this all over the internet)

[zapatos]

Quote

Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely "liberating" eastern Ukraine's Donbass region.

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-first-phase-ukraine-134534902.html

 

Suggesting that the stalemate thus far is a 'completed first phase' sounds to me like Russia-speak for 'Let's cut our losses and look for a way out that we can call a victory'.

This could indicate that the worst of this may soon be over.

[StringJunky]

1 hour ago, zapatos said:

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-first-phase-ukraine-134534902.html

 

Suggesting that the stalemate thus far is a 'completed first phase' sounds to me like Russia-speak for 'Let's cut our losses and look for a way out that we can call a victory'.

This could indicate that the worst of this may soon be over.

Typical of any government to spin a failure into a success. Let them have it, as long as no more people get hurt, and that includes the unfortunate Russian conscripts and officers who didn't have a clue what was coming.

[J.C.MacSwell]

4 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Typical of any government to spin a failure into a success. Let them have it, as long as no more people get hurt, and that includes the unfortunate Russian conscripts and officers who didn't have a clue what was coming.

Agree. Let them have their "victory", and hopefully they can sit back and enjoy their peace and lack of prosperity.

Congratulations Russia on having successfully completed all your planned atrocities.

[dimreepr]

19 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Agree. Let them have their "victory", and hopefully they can sit back and enjoy their peace and lack of prosperity.

Congratulations Russia on having successfully completed all your planned atrocities.

Congratulations Ukraine...