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Coronavirus mutations

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Posted (edited)

This is the really worrying situation.

More than half of the 30 - 50++ million deaths in the 'Spanish Flu' epidemic a century ago came as a result of a second wave mutated virus (though they didn't know it at the time).

Coronavirus has mutated in a more virulent way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52557955

Edited by studiot

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Statistically speaking, are mutations expected to be less contagious and/or less lethal? I would expect that would be the case as a general rule, but can anyone confirm or refute that?

Assuming that's true...by how much? Or are more benign ones more likely to get worse  and more lethal ones less lethal?

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I had read ( don't recall where now ) that the initial strain of SARS-COV2 in China had three different strains.
Strain A was the originator, followed by strain B and C.

The reason I recall this fact, is because strain A, the originator, was more predominant in an area surrounding Wuhan, while Wuhan itself, had more cases predominantly strain B. This would lead one to assume that the virus originated elsewhere, rather than the Wuhan wet market, as many have thought.
I do recall also, that the sample sizes were much too small to actually draw valid conclusions from.

In regards to the further slight mutations you mention, keep in mind that if a virus becomes more dangerous by quicker onset of symptoms, and more deadly, most of the people it infects will possibly fall ill and/or die before they have a chance to infect others.
A self-defeating mutation if which would lead to many deaths, but a quickly attenuated outbreak.
SARS-COV2 is so virulent because you can be contagious for up to two weeks ( infecting all sorts of people ), before you realize you are infected, and isolate/get tested/seek medical attention.

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41 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Statistically speaking, are mutations expected to be less contagious and/or less lethal?

Why less contagious? This seems counterintuitive to me. (Less lethal makes sense.)

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54 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Statistically speaking, are mutations expected to be less contagious and/or less lethal? I would expect that would be the case as a general rule, but can anyone confirm or refute that?

Assuming that's true...by how much? Or are more benign ones more likely to get worse  and more lethal ones less lethal?

So a mutation can result in either of these cases or, more frequently does nothing to change the disease outcome. Most of the major mutations we have seen are either silent (i.e. not changing the amino acid sequence) or were at sites that appear less crucial for the pathogenesis.

What generally happens is that strains that are less effectively transmitted or are too lethal tend to become a smaller proportion of the infections. So it is possible that less lethal ones outcompete more lethal mutations and become the dominant strain. But that is selection after the mutation, of course.

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15 minutes ago, Danijel Gorupec said:

Why less contagious? This seems counterintuitive to me. (Less lethal makes sense.)

Generally speaking for any species a mutation would most likely be less successful. I just don't know if the same would apply to a virus.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2020 at 1:27 PM, studiot said:

This is the really worrying situation.

More than half of the 30 - 50++ million deaths in the 'Spanish Flu' epidemic a century ago came as a result of a second wave mutated virus (though they didn't know it at the time).

Coronavirus has mutated in a more virulent way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52557955

I thought that the current covid mutations were producing less violent strains that allow the virus to continue to spread without killing the host?

It should also be noted that covid 19 is not a flu virus

Edited by Drakes

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55 minutes ago, Drakes said:

1) I thought that the current covid mutations were producing less violent strains that allow the virus to continue to spread without killing the host?

2) It should also be noted that covid 19 is not a flu virus

1) Many mutations are appearing (covid is not a production factory or facility either). Most are unviable so fall by the wayside.

But it only takes one bullet or mutation to kill you.

2) This thread is not an exercise in semantics. The experts have not yet fully agreed on the terminology, whcih itself has changed over the pandemic. Most members know what I am referring to

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, studiot said:

1) Many mutations are appearing (covid is not a production factory or facility either). Most are unviable so fall by the wayside.

But it only takes one bullet or mutation to kill you.

2) This thread is not an exercise in semantics. The experts have not yet fully agreed on the terminology, whcih itself has changed over the pandemic. Most members know what I am referring to

LOL I had covid so the expert is me.......................

The common cold has worse symptoms

If you want to live scared and believe the nonsense that the government puts out have fun, because when I had covid the government was telling people not to wear masks.

LOL

Edited by Drakes

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1 minute ago, John Cuthber said:

Well if you found it on the internet it must be real, right?

LOL have you bought back issues that are available on the net for free?  

https://nym.pcdfusion.com/pcd/ShoppingCart/store/210/Category/1080

 

Again I had this disease and it was the best thing ever as now I have no fear

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Drakes said:

Well if you found it on the internet it must be real, right?

Straw man

3 minutes ago, Drakes said:

LOL have you bought back issues that are available on the net for free?  

No.
 

 

4 minutes ago, Drakes said:

Again I had this disease and

Your experience is different from many people.

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Posted (edited)

When you have COVID-19 without symptoms, without any visible signs, you are lucky.. for now.. but when you have it for real the first symptom is unbearable tiredness.. You can sleep for 8, 10 or 12 hours, wake up, sit on chair, and after 5 minutes of sitting you have thoughts that you are so tired of sitting, just literal sitting, not doing anything, for these 5 minutes, you have thoughts that you have to go back to the bed....

Your organism has too low Oxygen..

Wearing masks on the face of such person even more decreases free access of Oxygen. Therefor people in China were literally losing consciousness on streets and laying down in subway..

Massive amount of people losing consciousness, counted in tens and hundred people per day terrified ordinary people and Chinese government to the level not remembered for hundred years or so..

Edited by Sensei

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32 minutes ago, Drakes said:

LOL I had covid so the expert is me.......................

The common cold has worse symptoms

If you want to live scared and believe the nonsense that the government puts out have fun, because when I had covid the government was telling people not to wear masks.

LOL

Well yes, the  UK government started well but managed to turn it into a shambles.

But we also have some really first rate experts on the job (if only they were listened to).

 

Apart from that, I am really glad for you that you only endured mild effects.

I lost my Herfordshire cousin (who was youger than I) to the pandemic.

 

Another ( long term) friend from Swindon has a lodger who worked as a night watchman in an othersie empty ( = shut down) hotel.

Sadly nightwatchmen are the (apparantly from the expert figures) the most vulnerable group and he contracted the disease, which laid a formerly healthy young man low for several weeks.

Here in Somerset we currently have no cases whatsoever in the local district hospital (and no deaths for the last two weeks)  and an incidence curve more akin to that of Germany than the rest of the UK.

I consider myself lucky.

So should you.

 

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On 5/6/2020 at 12:50 PM, J.C.MacSwell said:

Generally speaking for any species a mutation would most likely be less successful. I just don't know if the same would apply to a virus.

Actually the most likely scenario are neutral mutations. In most species there is a large space where mutations happen, but nothing changes on the physiological level. In viruses and other condensed genomes mutations are more likely to have an effect. But due to the high production rates many deleterious mutations are not observed as they do not get transmitted or even out of host cells in the first place (e.g. if the particle is not fully formed). Those that have been monitored so far are, again, mostly neutral, though the latest research indicate a potential new mutation that could be more effective in transmission (though not validated yet).

2 hours ago, Drakes said:

I thought that the current covid mutations were producing less violent strains that allow the virus to continue to spread without killing the host?

While this often happens, it is over a longer time. What basically happens is that if a less harmful strain emerges in parallel with a deadlier one, over time there is a certain likelihood that the deadlier version spreads slower (as its host keeps dying). After a certain while, the less harmful one may become dominant. However, especially in this case it may take much longer, as the death rate is not terribly high and especially among folks that are very good at spreading (i.e. younger folks) the symptoms are relatively mild. There is evidence that there are long-term damages to the lung, even among those that recover, but that is unlikely to be detrimental to its spread.

27 minutes ago, Sensei said:

Massive amount of people losing consciousness, counted in tens and hundred people per day terrified ordinary people and Chinese government to the level not remembered for hundred years or so..

Wait what? First time I have seen that. Is there an article about that that you could share?

 

Edit: Looks like one of those viral social media thingies. I.e. more rumors than anything https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/people-collapsing-coronavirus/

Those things add confusion to the current situation which is not really ideal.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, CharonY said:

Wait what? First time I have seen that.

No. You had to see it in COVID-19 mega thread and you forgot, because I mentioned it in February 2020.

"Have you seen videos with people losing consciousness on the street and failing and lying down on the ground?"

https://www.scienceforums.net/topic/121314-corona-virus-general-questions-mega-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1132907

11 hours ago, CharonY said:

Is there an article about that that you could share?

...there are even CCTV videos and recorded by smartphone and uploaded to YouTube videos made in January 2020 with people laying on the streets..

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10808633/coronavirus-wuhan-zombieland/

It is now hard to find specific material because net is flooded by articles about COVID-19..

11 hours ago, CharonY said:

Edit: Looks like one of those viral social media thingies. I.e. more rumors than anything https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/people-collapsing-coronavirus/

Those things add confusion to the current situation which is not really ideal.

Are you making conspiracy theory that people made these videos with actors and actresses? And they hired medics with entire ambulance just to make "viral video" to spread misinformation.. ? Medics on these videos wear full uniforms with masks, the same as used during COVID-19 pandemic. Medics don't go with full uniform with masks just to car accident as article suggests. Linked by you article may be exactly example of misinformation, to make people doubt everything what they see, and hear, including videos. (in era of A.I. generated Deepfakes and future, it may be a good idea.... poor humans... future does not look bright)

CCTV/smartphone videos compilation is even in your own article:

I will repeat, once again, China government in January 2020 ordered the all people to wear masks. If somebody had problems with breathing due to illness which was not diagnosed yet, and was forced to wear mask which even more limited access of Oxygen, could lose consciousness.. That situation happened in early January China, before permanent lock down..

"Losing consciousness" is not "symptom of coronavirus", as you, and link that you gave above suggests. It is result of wearing all day long masks (at work and way to work and back, in the all public places) which limits free access of Oxygen.

 

Edited by Sensei

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17 hours ago, Sensei said:

Wearing masks on the face of such person even more decreases free access of Oxygen.

Demonstrably false

 

6 hours ago, Sensei said:

 

"Losing consciousness" is not "symptom of coronavirus", as you, and link that you gave above suggests. It is result of wearing all day long masks (at work and way to work and back, in the all public places) which limits free access of Oxygen.

 

Reported as dangerous misinformation



 

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, John Cuthber said:

Demonstrably false

1) there is no single unique design of mask on the world. Don't compare apples to oranges.

2) medic is healthy. Fair test should be performed on somebody with breathing problems. e.g. stuffed nose.

3) medic is performing test in just a couple seconds. Such test to get more precise results should take hours.

4) medic has no beard. If you have longer beard and wear mask after 5 minutes you will have dizziness.

5) his heart started beating faster by 5.4%. when he started test it was 74. At the end it is 78. Why do you think so? Because organism noticed lack of Oxygen and increased rate of heart-beating to counter it.. He should perform a much longer test and just fast rewind video. Put data on graph vs time. 8h+ time of experiment not just 70 seconds..

6) medic should show what happens if access to air is completely shutdown e.g. what will happen after covering nose by hand and what Oxygen level will be on the screen.

 

Edited by Sensei

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Please, 

The subject of this thread is mutations not masks.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Sensei said:

medic has no beard. If you have longer beard and wear mask after 5 minutes you will have dizziness.

One  known, documented problem with masks is that they don't work properly for people (like me, as it happens) who have beards- because the beard stops the mask sealing properly. So, if anything, they are less likely to reduce oxygenation.
In the real world, I have a beard and I do sometimes wear a mask; I don't get dizzy..
Again, your "point" is demonstrably false.


Just stop trying to repeat this nonsense.

 

 

5 hours ago, studiot said:

Please, 

The subject of this thread is mutations not masks.

I take your point but, even if the thread was about flower arranging, it wouldn't be appropriate to let Sensei's dangerous nonsense stand uncorrected.

Edited by John Cuthber

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14 hours ago, Sensei said:

It is now hard to find specific material because net is flooded by articles about COVID-19.

!

Moderator Note

But rigor is more important now than ever before, so let's make sure not to repeat rumors that inevitably become the basis for more guesswork. Please remember how internet advertising works, and how sensational stories make you linger on the page to boost revenue. Reputably sourced facts are critical if any of these COVID-19 threads are going to do more help than harm.

 

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