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Comparing Corona Virus Success Stories with Abysmal Failures


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1 hour ago, MigL said:

Then there is the death rate underreporting...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-chinas-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-sharply-after-wuhan-announces/

Maybe world 'pressure' is starting to have an effect.

I think that will be similar for many places. For example, the mayor of Bergamo, at one point, said the death rate was probably 10 times the official rate.

In the UK, the official figures only include deaths in hospital. The Office of National Statistics does, later, get figures for all deaths from death certificates. But if there hasn't been a positive test result then it is put to individual doctors whether they put it down as a cause (or contributory factor) so even that figure will be lower than the real death rate.

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It has nothing to do with 'spinning' the death toll, JC. His policies, such as pressuring State Governors to re-open, and lack of policies, such as not making medical supplies available to certain S

I am not talking about whether China might or might not have been forthright or who is more or less honest. That is not terribly productive in itself, and I am mostly concerned about facts we know or

That is nonsense. Plenty of folks took it seriously, their pandemic responses teams activated early January. China shut down whole provinces and tanking their economy and risking unrest. That alone wa

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12 minutes ago, Strange said:

I think that will be similar for many places. For example, the mayor of Bergamo, at one point, said the death rate was probably 10 times the official rate.

In the UK, the official figures only include deaths in hospital. The Office of National Statistics does, later, get figures for all deaths from death certificates. But if there hasn't been a positive test result then it is put to individual doctors whether they put it down as a cause (or contributory factor) so even that figure will be lower than the real death rate.

No doubt. Folks in the midst of it will only have limited capacity to correctly categorize each death, though I believe that Italy has one of the higher post-mortem tests. In Wuhan for quite some time they counted suspected cases as confirmed ones after using MRI, as they were running low on test capacities and/or wanted to have faster reporting. Everyone involved knows that data is imperfect and will remain for quite some time in most countries.

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I don't think I'm playing the blame game' CharonY, as certainly there is enough to go around for every state.

What I am effectively doing is comparing states to a person.
If a person is infected, and he doesn't give clear information about his condition, but goes out and about, infecting other people, why are we suggesting it is the fault of the people, who didn't receive clear information, yet got infected ?
The US, and D Trump ( along with Europeans ), have become the scapegoat again.
I am saying China knew something was going on in December ( first case in late November ), yet they did not 'isolate' themselves, and passed on 'spotty' information to the rest of the world.

The 'fault' that can be attributed to the US and Europe, in the middle of January, is that, instead of 'hoping for the best/planning for the worst', they 'hoped and planned for the best', after a month of being led to believe/expect the 'best' from the Chinese Government.

When 3/4 of the posts in every Corona Virus thread, are about the bad response of the US, how unprepared they were, and what an idiot D Trump is being, I see that as the 'blame game'.
China definitely doesn't deserve a 'free pass', or praise, for how it handled things. Their actions deserve a little more scrutiny from the international community.
And yes, when people 'seem' to be withholding information, human nature fills in the vacuum, and others start believing something is being covered up.

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2 hours ago, MigL said:

If a person is infected, and he doesn't give clear information about his condition, but goes out and about, infecting other people, why are we suggesting it is the fault of the people, who didn't receive clear information, yet got infected ?
The US, and D Trump ( along with Europeans ), have become the scapegoat again.
I am saying China knew something was going on in December ( first case in late November ), yet they did not 'isolate' themselves, and passed on 'spotty' information to the rest of the world.

So what clear information do you think was missing? After the initial reports Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea Singapore used that information and started countermeasures.

Again, the US and Europe did not start moving until March, so why do you think that knowing something in November would have made a difference if they did not react to the full-blown epidemic in January/February?

IF they had reacted immediately after China released data, than they could have claimed that knowing things earlier would have made a difference. But the over one month gap invalidates that. Right now some folks pretend that the information coming of of China since January did not exist which is silly. Even if there was uncertainty in the correct response (which will always exist, in outbreaks you are always over or underprepared) yet things only started moving once it was undeniably there (i.e. in Italy). And again, meanwhile other countries were moving but folks did not learn fast enough from them.

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China definitely doesn't deserve a 'free pass', or praise, for how it handled things. Their actions deserve a little more scrutiny from the international community.

I see plenty of criticism mostly by the US but also France and other countries so I do not think that they are quite happy with them. At the same time I want to know what, precisely that impacts or medical preparedness, science and strategy. Because what I am seeing (and what you are also stating) is that because of China fudging something, the rest of the world just could not react. I have several times outlined not only that they could, and should, but also that some actually did. So again, what precisely do you think was hidden that stopped a proper response. It is not the November/December data as folks who reacted using the January data successfully avoided a full lockdown, whereas others who still did not respond (or at least provided emergency plans) had worse outcomes. It was a decision at that point not to anything with all the measures that were going on and getting caught by surprise in March is just myopic, to put it nicely.

The reason is that if there was crucial data missing to mount a proper response, we need to know what it is and how to collect it. If on the other hand it is only used as an excuse for lack of planning, then it would imply that we will be caught off-guard next time around again. 

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10 minutes ago, CharonY said:

So what clear information do you think was missing? After the initial reports Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea Singapore used that information and started countermeasures.

Again, the US and Europe did not start moving until March, so why do you think that knowing something in November would have made a difference if they did not react to the full-blown epidemic in January/February?

IF they had reacted immediately after China released data, than they could have claimed that knowing things earlier would have made a difference. But the over one month gap invalidates that. Right now some folks pretend that the information coming of of China since January did not exist which is silly. Even if there was uncertainty in the correct response (which will always exist, in outbreaks you are always over or underprepared) yet things only started moving once it was undeniably there (i.e. in Italy). And again, meanwhile other countries were moving but folks did not learn fast enough from them.

I see plenty of criticism mostly by the US but also France and other countries so I do not think that they are quite happy with them. At the same time I want to know what, precisely that impacts or medical preparedness, science and strategy. Because what I am seeing (and what you are also stating) is that because of China fudging something, the rest of the world just could not react. I have several times outlined not only that they could, and should, but also that some actually did. So again, what precisely do you think was hidden that stopped a proper response. It is not the November/December data as folks who reacted using the January data successfully avoided a full lockdown, whereas others who still did not respond (or at least provided emergency plans) had worse outcomes. It was a decision at that point not to anything with all the measures that were going on and getting caught by surprise in March is just myopic, to put it nicely.

The reason is that if there was crucial data missing to mount a proper response, we need to know what it is and how to collect it. If on the other hand it is only used as an excuse for lack of planning, then it would imply that we will be caught off-guard next time around again. 

Yeah, all countries outside the far east pussy-footed until it was on top of them. The US administration is currently, and earnestly, attempting to shift the blame for its inaction elsewhere.... typical Trump stuff.

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This is the political section, so we are discussing the 'politics', not medical preparedness or science.

The one part of my post you didn't quote

2 hours ago, MigL said:

e 'fault' that can be attributed to the US and Europe, in the middle of January, is that, instead of 'hoping for the best/planning for the worst', they 'hoped and planned for the best', after a month of being led to believe/expect the 'best' from the Chinese Government.

China made it look like they had the situation 'under control' until the middle of January, when cases started showing up in Europe and the US.
So most were expecting an 'easy ride' like China, and we didn't 'get serious' until the middle of February, when we realized how quickly it was getting out of control.
You can claim the deaths weren't there in China, during the month of December, but the 'latest' ( actual ? ) numbers confirm there were plenty.
We didn't start seeing those kinds of death numbers elsewhere until February.

 

14 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

The US administration is currently, and earnestly, attempting to shift the blame for its inaction elsewhere.... typical Trump stuff.

And who is B Johnson blaming Stringy ?
Apparently the UK is also investigating the possibility SARS-CoV2 was created and liberated from WIV.
Again the US ( and D Trump ) are everyone's favorite whipping boy.

At least D Trump wasn't dumb enough to get himself infected.

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15 minutes ago, MigL said:

This is the political section, so we are discussing the 'politics', not medical preparedness or science.

The one part of my post you didn't quote

China made it look like they had the situation 'under control' until the middle of January, when cases started showing up in Europe and the US.
So most were expecting an 'easy ride' like China, and we didn't 'get serious' until the middle of February, when we realized how quickly it was getting out of control.
You can claim the deaths weren't there in China, during the month of December, but the 'latest' ( actual ? ) numbers confirm there were plenty.
We didn't start seeing those kinds of death numbers elsewhere until February.

 

And who is B Johnson blaming Stringy ?
Apparently the UK is also investigating the possibility SARS-CoV2 was created and liberated from WIV.
Again the US ( and D Trump ) are everyone's favorite whipping boy.

At least D Trump wasn't dumb enough to get himself infected.

Can you give me some sources for the first two?  Are you a Trump fanboy?

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1 hour ago, MigL said:

China made it look like they had the situation 'under control' until the middle of January, when cases started showing up in Europe and the US.
So most were expecting an 'easy ride' like China, and we didn't 'get serious' until the middle of February, when we realized how quickly it was getting out of control.
You can claim the deaths weren't there in China, during the month of December, but the 'latest' ( actual ? ) numbers confirm there were plenty.
We didn't start seeing those kinds of death numbers elsewhere until February.

That reads to me like a revision of the facts. By January 30th China reported more Covid-19 cases than there were SARS worldwide and over 200  deaths. They were in total lockdown and reports were coming in that their healthcare system was at the breaking point. Daily deaths were steadily increasing with a slowdown only toward the end of February. Who would see that numbers as state there is no chance of it breaking out? In order to ascertain that, folks needed to ramp up testing in their respective countries and do entry checks and follow-ups. 

Epi-studies suggest that the lockdown has delayed spread, but it was unknown what was happening at the same time in Europe or US as folks (as some acknowledge) delayed contact tracing. Cases especially in New York were more frequently caused by travelers from Europe than China, for example.

It was pretty much in plain sight, the only thing that was not known is how much spread was going on outside of China. This is not something that China could have measured in any form. There were early positive cases detected outside China but testing was not ramped up. The high death rates we see were mostly driven by community infections.

Also I will note that I did not claim that there were no deaths in December (at that time point folks did not have a means to proper diagnose it anyway) but I have not seen reports either that they were plenty. The linked article only shows an overall revision of the total count but after a brief skim I did not see timelines attached. Perhaps you can point those out (not that it matters). But again, let's say folks were uncertain about the December numbers. What, again, about the numbers in February? What, numbers would you say would have to be reported to trigger responses?  Double the numbers of SARS? That would be Feb 2. Triple? Feb 5. 

 

 

1 hour ago, StringJunky said:

Yeah, all countries outside the far east pussy-footed until it was on top of them. The US administration is currently, and earnestly, attempting to shift the blame for its inaction elsewhere.... typical Trump stuff.

I do understand the need to balance risk for health and economy to some degree. But at the same time, I (and plenty of my colleagues) expected contingency plans that would be triggered once it became clear that things would not hold. This would include a task force that would centrally collect and advise on data, stashing and distributing test kits, check availability of critical health systems (such as ventilators and PPE). At the same time less invasive measures would be implemented (again with central reporting). As well as perhaps limiting big events.

Now after the fact we heard that contact tracing was only partially done in e.g. Germany, where they gave up after a few searches, where folks still had large carnival and sports events (and again only partial tracing after they realized infected folks were there). What I find worrying that leaving Trump aside, there were folks like folks in the German RKI who have downplayed risks, not because, but despite the data coming out of China.Other German virologists have been far more worried and starting demanding to have actual plans in place. Which did not come until March. So to be fair, it is not only the US that is failing (though it is doing it spectacularly) but as you said, others have been dragging their feet. 

One difference that I have observed however, is that in Germany instead of blaming, say, China, they are looking at why their predictions were so off and pinpointed lack of contact tracing as one of the biggest issues (together with initial low testing rates). While I may be dismayed regarding their slow response, at least there is hope for improvement.

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2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Are you a Trump fanboy?

That seems to be a standard retort when people point out that not everything is D Trump's fault.
I'm sure you've read my views on D Trump, so that comes across as a putdown, certainly not a valid argument.

 

2 hours ago, StringJunky said:

Can you give me some sources for the first two?

I don't know what you mean by two, as I only asserted one thing in my reply to you, but sure...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1270099/us-coronavirus-researcher-China-lab-bats-NBC-COVID-19-death-toll-lockdown

 

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Interesting data released by Stanford estimating that the number of people infected by COVID in California may be 50 - 80 times higher than originally thought.  If true this would significantly lower the death rate from 3-4% to .1%.

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The study also showed that the death rate may be lower than once projected — .12 to 0.2% compared to the state’s projection of 3%. Researchers said they hope to use the study to project death and hospitalization rates as the pandemic continues.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

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5 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Interesting data released by Stanford estimating that the number of people infected by COVID in California may be 50 - 80 times higher than originally thought.  If true this would significantly lower the death rate from 3-4% to .1%.

On the other hand, hopes that this could lead to herd immunity may be unrealistic:

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Speaking in Geneva, the World Health Organization's (WHO) Dr Maria van Kerkhove cast doubt on the benefit of rapid serology tests due to a lack of evidence around coronavirus immunity.

She said: "There are a lot of countries that are suggesting using rapid diagnostic serological tests to be able to capture what they think will be a measure of immunity.

"Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection."

She added: "These antibody tests will be able to measure that level of seroprevalence - that level of antibodies but that does not mean that somebody with antibodies means that they are immune."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52335210

 

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On 4/18/2020 at 5:46 AM, Strange said:

On the other hand, hopes that this could lead to herd immunity may be unrealistic:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52335210

 

That is an important factor but can somewhat be somewhat addressed by using ELISA instead of rapid tests. The former provides quantitative information which provides a bit more information (but not certainty) regarding possible immunity.

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There is a WaPo article outlining how WHO in conjunction with the US officials have developed WHO policy and has provided the US with early information regarding the outbreak,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/americans-at-world-health-organization-transmitted-real-time-information-about-coronavirus-to-trump-administration/2020/04/19/951c77fa-818c-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

 

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Very interesting hypothesis by Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel based on global models:

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According to analysis of international graphs and comparisons, Major Gen. (Res) Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel concludes that it is certainly possible and we are already in the final stages of the coronavirus epidemic.

 

Prof. Ben-Israel explained his position, pointing out that when measuring the rate of additional patients to existing patients, the trend can be clearly identified and adjusted in all countries. If, at the beginning of the epidemic, the rate of hospitalization was increasing at a rapid rate every day, this reality has since changed radically.

"The incidence of patients was greater by the day. This was during the first four weeks after the epidemic was discovered in Israel. As of the sixth week, the increase in the number of patients has been moderate, peaking in the sixth week at 700 patients per day. Since then it has been declining, and today there are only 300 new patients. In two weeks it will reach zero and there will be no more new patients," Prof. Ben-Israel said.

"This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps like Italy and in countries that have not had closures like Taiwan or Singapore. In such and such countries there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter moderation until during the eighth week it disappears."

 

Source:  http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/278658

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Apparently it isn't just the US that has groups protesting the lockdown/shutdown.
We had our own protesters yesterday in front of the Provincial Parliament building in Toronto.
Dozens ( 30-40 ) people were 'allowed' to protest by the police ( as long as they practiced social distancing ) and no tickets were issued.

Our Premier, Doug Ford ( yes, the brother of the (in)famous Rob Ford ) called them selfish, irresponsible, and 'ya-hoos'.

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7 hours ago, MigL said:

Apparently it isn't just the US that has groups protesting the lockdown/shutdown.
We had our own protesters yesterday in front of the Provincial Parliament building in Toronto.
Dozens ( 30-40 ) people were 'allowed' to protest by the police ( as long as they practiced social distancing ) and no tickets were issued.

The only logical outcome when you deprive people of the basic necessities to live. Many people are facing death already - the Corona Virus is a small risk compared to being unemployed.  The number of suicides has apparently skyrocketed in the last two months.   So if you've got money, great, you can sit back and wag your finger condescendingly - as most of those in the political, scientific, and media establishment do. But if you're a working man or woman, you face a much different reality.

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Our Premier, Doug Ford ( yes, the brother of the (in)famous Rob Ford ) called them selfish, irresponsible, and 'ya-hoos'.

While he rests comfortably on the taxpayer's dime in a plush office somewhere. 

On a related note, I saw Andrew Cuomo told the out of work protesters to "get an essential job".  He might as well have told them to "go and eat cake".

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2 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

While he rests comfortably on the taxpayer's dime in a plush office somewhere. 

I am wondering whether protesters are financially affected. In the US quite a number of these protests were orchestrated by certain ideological groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/politics/coronavirus-protests-trump.html). That does not mean that  economic anxiety is not a factor for some, but there is certainly something else at play here.

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6 hours ago, CharonY said:

I am wondering whether protesters are financially affected. In the US quite a number of these protests were orchestrated by certain ideological groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/politics/coronavirus-protests-trump.html). That does not mean that  economic anxiety is not a factor for some, but there is certainly something else at play here.

This is a common tactic used by both sides these days:  link a protest movement however you can to powerful special interest groups thus allowing you to dismiss the validity of the protest en masse.  The right does it all the time with George Soros, dismissing left wing groups as "Soros backed". Now it seems the left is doing as well, calling these groups "Davos backed" etc.  It's an deflection tactic to avoid understanding opposing viewpoints.

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5 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

It's an deflection tactic to avoid understanding opposing viewpoints.

Perhaps, but it’s also a valid claim. These protests were organized by a tiny handful of special interest organizations. Sure, the people attending have valid concerns and real problems, and I’m sure they’d rather life get back to normal (like all of us). They are cognizant of government overreach and rightly wish to protect personal liberties.

Acknowledging these things, however, should not prevent us from acknowledging in parallel that many/most of these fringe protests are being centrally coordinated and have purposes entirely unrelated to the stated protest goals. You’ll notice these Flu Klux Klan protests are all white and against democratic governors, rather similar to the Black Lives Matter protests which were later shown to be astroturfed and largely driven by Russian intelligence.

Their message then was that All Lives Matter, but I guess that is only true until you’re trying to protect citizens from global pandemics. Then, lives magically become expendable and the message switches to “screw you grandma, I need Fuddruckers to re-open so I can get me a hamburger and then go bowling STAT!.”

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33 minutes ago, iNow said:

Their message then was that All Lives Matter, but I guess that is only true until you’re trying to protect citizens from global pandemics. Then, lives magically become expendable and the message switches to “screw you grandma, I need Fuddruckers to re-open so I can get me a hamburger and then go bowling STAT!.”

Indeed (+1), and that level of sarcasm should be applicable to any suggestion that aspires to return to a world where "All Lives Matter" is a contentious issue. 

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4 minutes ago, Alex_Krycek said:

Interesting commentary from two doctors on the front lines. Their view is the data doesn't justify continuing the shut down any longer.

Interesting??? Sarcasm has no effect... 

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