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Alex_Krycek

Comparing Corona Virus Success Stories with Abysmal Failures

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17 hours ago, John Cuthber said:

Have you been tested?
I haven't.

We both live in unprepared countries with ineffective strategies.  

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Also, incompetent grifters as leaders 

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9 hours ago, Alex_Krycek said:

We both live in unprepared countries with ineffective strategies.  

We all live on a planet with unprepared people, who think money is "kinda neat" and decided health isn't quite as valuable.

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No Dim, we decided others' health isn't valuable.
When its our own, we'll sell our own mother into slavery for a faint hope.
 

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16 hours ago, MigL said:

No Dim, we decided others' health isn't valuable.
When its our own, we'll sell our own mother into slavery for a faint hope.
 

Good point (it basically proves my point) but in this context, your mother/money has no value/meaning, other than how many toys you've got while your alone.

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So there is a preprint that predicts about 80k deaths in the USA over the next 4 months with large uncertainties, though (MEDRXIV/2020/043752). See also https://www.reuters.com/video/?videoId=OVC6U1U23&jwsource=cl

Edit: If true, it be more deaths than the deaths attributed to influenza (at least since 2010).

 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, CharonY said:

So there is a preprint that predicts about 80k deaths in the USA over the next 4 months with large uncertainties, though (MEDRXIV/2020/043752). See also https://www.reuters.com/video/?videoId=OVC6U1U23&jwsource=cl

 

 

Here's a link to the pdf: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/covid_paper_MEDRXIV-2020-043752v1-Murray.pdf

The prediction doesn't tally well with Trump saying that things will be easier at Easter and they all can start going back to work.

 

 

US COVID Trajectory.PNG

Edited by StringJunky

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The latest I heard about Coronavirus is that this can keep coming back until there is a vaccine.  Is it correct to say it is 3x as contagious as the flu and 10x as deadly?

Remember Rush Limbaugh saying "The democrats will weaponize Coronavirus!"  I hope so, since Trump weaponizes everything, all day, every day.  The Dems need to fight back by weaponizing things the way Trump does, or lose the election.  

Just heard in the news, Trump bragged about the high ratings of his daily "mini-rallys" for Coronavirus updates.  He makes his pitch, hard and heavy, then turns it over to Pense, who tells us what a great job the pes is doing, and then lastly the doctors who give some facts.  Trump is pushing his daily briefing pep talks later and later into prime time.  How can ANY Democrat beat someone so clever and so devious?  Here is Trump's tweet, weaponizing Coronavirus.

"Because the “Ratings” of my News Conferences etc. are so high, “Bachelor finale, Monday Night Football type numbers” according to the @nytimes, the Lamestream Media is going CRAZY. “Trump is reaching too many people, we must stop him.” said one lunatic. See you at 5:00 P.M.!"

Edited by Airbrush

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On 3/30/2020 at 10:03 AM, Airbrush said:

3x as contagious as the flu and 10x as deadly

Case mortality is about that. It is a fluid number of course, case-mortality of influenza for example is dependent on a variety of factors and in the US the death rate of symptomatic illnesses is somewhere between 0.1-0.2%. The case mortality for COVID-19 is estimated somewhere between 1-2% according to most estimates. The crude death rate is higher, but probably overestimates as undiagnosed folks are missing from the number.

Contagious is also a bit difficult as often there are differences in interpretation. Typically a measure to compare diseases is the so called reproductive number, R0, which indicates how many cases are generated from a single case, assuming no immunity or other interventions.

That number is often a bit difficult to assess, as for flu a certain (fluctuating) number of folks are vaccinated or naturally immune against a given strain. In case of COVID-19 there is no immunity, but isolation can curb the number. That being said, for COVID-19 the current estimates are around 1.4-3.8. The various influenza strains have a range of estimates from 0.8-2.2. It is roughly  like SARS is but lower than MERS.

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The Provincial Government of Ontario, Canada, has passed a law that skips today's date, and goes directly to April 2.
The fear was that too many people would engage in April Foolery, and run afoul of social distancing guidelines.

The plan is to have two April 1sts next year.

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22 minutes ago, MigL said:

The Provincial Government of Ontario, Canada, has passed a law that skips today's date, and goes directly to April 2.
The fear was that too many people would engage in April Foolery, and run afoul of social distancing guidelines.

The plan is to have two April 1sts next year.

You do know it's past noon...

Edited by J.C.MacSwell

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Yeah, was busy trimming bushes and pruning my lemon tree this morning.
Besides, we could all use a little humor right now.

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