Danijel Gorupec Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 2 hours ago, gib65 said: I don't get the strategy the world is using to fight COVID19. I get that social distancing and social isolation are ways to reduce the chances of catching and spreading COVID, but what's the ultimate goal? Are we trying to eradicate the virus? Prolong the eventuality of catching it? Are we waiting for a vaccine? What's the criteria for considering the pandemic over so that we can resume our lives? ... I share your concerns and thinking. We discussed some of it even in this thread and it seems that the plan is "slow down the spread of the disease and hope for a cure/vaccine". I am not sure if this can be called a 'plan' at all as it includes the 'hope for' component. As I see it, there are two general strategies governments are going for: a) keep the spread as low as possible; wait for cure/vaccine... This is a bet that cure/vaccine will be found quickly. If cure/vaccine is indeed found quickly, this will save most lives. However it imposes heavy toll on economy and might only be possible for a short time. Some countries that started this way are already reconsidering. b) keep the spread within tolerable levels; increase capacity of hospital system; wait for cure/vaccine... This is a bet that cure/vaccine will only be found after some time. Disruption of economy is lower and can be tolerated longer. I think that this is a more complex strategy and would be difficult in some societies (it depends a lot on citizen discipline; police enforcing is not that effective). We cannot eradicate the virus any more by quarantining people or by social distancing. As far as I know, no country is implementing a 'plan' that does not include finding the cure/vaccine eventually. The 'heard immunity' plan may take too long to realize (countries may not be capable to increase its hospital capacity ten fold and speed up the process). Even if the number of cases is 50 times more than is reported, the 'heard immunity' is not close yet (Italy has 200 thousands confirmed; say, 10 million infected. But it needs about 40 million for 'heard immunity'. So, one more year of current heavy measures). And this only if we bet that the 'heard immunity' is possible. If the cure/vaccine is not available in 1-2 years, I think we will simply learn to live with the disease. The average life-span might shorten a bit. If the vaccine is found sooner, it should be administered by priority (it might also depend how rich is your country). Medical staff is probably first to be vaccinated. Seniors too... But even knowing that there is a cure/vaccine, will cause a relaxation of measures before the cure is available to general population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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