Jump to content
Airbrush

Is this war with Iran?

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I hope you are right, what you hope for happens.

even Trump isnt that stupid,

26 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

I feel this was a pretty smart move by Iran. We made a direct, in-your-face, significant attack which they would have felt required a significant response.

At the same time, they seem to be saying "now let's let it go and get back to our normal way of doing things".Ball is in our court.

sums it up for me.

 

take it as weakness and share their fate.

Edited by dimreepr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

even Trump isnt that stupid,

sums it up for me.

 

take it as weakness and share their fate.

Trump isn't stupid enough to not respond in kind?

Somehow you have quoted Zap and attributed the second part to me...???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The plane crash involved a Boeing 737-800NG, not the MAX but a previous version with stable aerodynamics and no computer override.
The plane was 3 years old and had been in for maintenance on Monday. And Ukraine has suspended all flights into the area, but hasn't grounded similar 737-800NGs.

I personally haven't seen it, but there are reports of a video showing the plane coming down engulfed in a fireball, and wreckage photos show puncture damage from either engine failure and breach of blades, or shrapnel.

The plane was at 8000 ft when contact was lost and it disappeared from radar, but the ground elevation in the area is over 3000 ft, and it had made a sharp left turn as it climbed out at less than 5000 ft relative to ground elevation. At this point it would have been close to  the Malard missile launch site.

Given the circumstances, this does not seem to be a technical issue, even if there had been enough time to do an investigation ( usually takes months ), and engine failiures do not result in that type of a crash. I would assume, until evidence proves me wrong,, that the plane was warned not to overfly the missile launch site, but was mistaken by Iranian air defenses as incoming cruise missile or possibly even MANPAD launched in error at a low flying target.

I have also seen reports of the 63 Canadians being mostly students from the Toronto area.

Seems Iran's 'insignificant' response may have led to some  very serious consequences, and the 'fog' of war has shown up again.

May all 180 passengers RIP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Somehow you have quoted Zap and attributed the second part to me...???

Shit happens...

24 minutes ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

Trump isn't stupid enough to not respond in kind?

what kind of kind?

12 minutes ago, MigL said:

Seems Iran's 'insignificant' response may have led to some  very serious consequences, and the 'fog' of war has shown up again.

what is the 'fog' of war? the 'fog' of stupid is war...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, MigL said:

Seems Iran's 'insignificant' response may have led to some  very serious consequences, and the 'fog' of war has shown up again.

Sadly, it appears Archduke Franz Ferdinand was just assassinated yet again...

33 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

what is the 'fog' of war?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fog_of_war

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dimreepr said:

 

what kind of kind?

 

What kind of kind did you think it was that Zap referred to? I assumed it was a military strike equivalent to last nights missiles.

I agreed with his hope Trump would not respond in kind.

You, for some reason, didn't think Trump could be that stupid. Why would you say that?

It seems what  Zap hoped for is happening...at least for now:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51039520

Some of the students killed in the crash are students at our local universities in Halifax.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iran plane crash. Experts doubt 'Technical failure'.

Quote

Doubts have been cast over Iranian claims that a plane crash near Tehran was the result of technical failures, with experts saying a "shootdown" was the most likely reason...."This is catastrophic and not the type of crash that comes from an engine failing...."It is very unusual, you would expect to see some wreckage but all we can see here is debris."

 

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-was-most-likely-shot-down-say-experts/

What a wonderful start to the new year. A new war. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Curious layman said:

Iran plane crash. Experts doubt 'Technical failure'.

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/01/08/iran-plane-was-most-likely-shot-down-say-experts/

What a wonderful start to the new year. A new war. 

I suspect this was the case. I'm not sure it matters to me whether it was mechanical failure or accidentally shot down by Iranian defences (the most likely intent). Some may blame Trump if the latter is the case. I won't. I'm hearing at least 5 from our area and of course that is upsetting even with just minor details I've heard on 3 of them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/3/2020 at 6:33 PM, iNow said:

He only has authority to do this if the threat is imminent. Otherwise, it was illegal. I look forward to seeing the evidence that there was an imminent threat that could only be stopped by assassinating this guy with a drone. 

This won’t be happening. There was a bipartisan briefing with Trumps teams and key reps from congress today that left officials on both sides of the aisle pissed of and disappointed. 
 

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/8/21057344/trump-congress-iran-intelligence-briefing-soleimani

Quote

The administration promised all of their concerns would be addressed during Senate and House briefings on secret Iranian intelligence. Those briefings concluded Wednesday afternoon — and most Democrats (and some Republicans) are pissed.

<snip>
This was “probably the worst briefing I’ve seen, at least on a military issue, in the nine years I’ve served in the US Senate,” Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) told reporters after the Senate session. Lee and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) both said they will now support a war powers resolution led by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) to restrict the president’s ability to go to war with Iran

<snip>

House member who, like four others, spoke to me on the condition of anonymity to describe a classified briefing. “They don’t have any” underlying facts to establish an imminent threat, the lawmaker said. “The information we got was no more detailed or revealing than what we’ve read in the news or seen on the TV.”

According to multiple people in the room, Trump’s national security team gave lawmakers aiming to understand the administration’s Iran policy and intelligence next to nothing.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, iNow said:

This won’t be happening. There was a bipartisan briefing with Trumps teams and key reps from congress today that left officials on both sides of the aisle pissed of and disappointed. 
 

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/8/21057344/trump-congress-iran-intelligence-briefing-soleimani

 

All Trump could do was blame Obama.

Target of opportunity. Not imminent threat.

In other words, an assassination.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, iNow said:

Sadly, it appears Archduke Franz Ferdinand was just assassinated yet again...

whats sad is, we all know what you mean yet here we are again...

19 hours ago, J.C.MacSwell said:

You, for some reason, didn't think Trump could be that stupid. Why would you say that?

hope...:wub:

The pendulum of stupid has No idea which end its at...

Edited by dimreepr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/7/2020 at 9:59 PM, MigL said:

Reports of a Ukrainian Airlines 737 crash in Tehran.
180 passengers on board.

Statements released uncharacteristically quick say it was due to technical issues.

given the timing this raises questions.
Or is it simply more bad news for Boeing ?
( not trying to be callous about the loss of lives )

On 1/7/2020 at 10:10 PM, iNow said:

Probably best to assume unfortunate coincidence at this point. 


US Intelligence just confirmed it was shot down by a missile, seemingly originating from Iran.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, iNow said:


US Intelligence just confirmed it was shot down by a missile, seemingly originating from Iran.

Which one? The Deep State one or the other one?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, rangerx said:

The Deep State one or the other one?

Yes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, iNow said:


US Intelligence just confirmed it was shot down by a missile, seemingly originating from Iran.

So far the actual information seems to be as secret as the reason for assassinating Soleimani.

Still, Trump has confirmed it, so it must be true....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The US does have a satellite based, missile launch detection system.
They knew about the Iranian missile launches ahead of time, and even had telemetry on impact sites.
You don't really think the Iranians warned the Iraqis, who then warned the Americans  ?
Or that solid propellant ballistic missiles, with no in-flight course correction, are accurate enough to miss EVERYBODY on a base covering many square miles, except empty buildings ?

This system is obviously classified. While the Americans may have gone through the data to detect a missile launch at the airliner, I would not expect too much information to come out for that reason.
Hopefully Iran releases, or accepts help in deciphering the Black Box data. I heard Ukrainian specialists are already there, and they may accept help from Canada or France. If it was an accident in time of war, or even a militia ( unaffiliated with Government forces ) MANPAD launch, that brought the airliner down, families of the deceased passengers need to know.
Things like this, unfortunately, have happened before in tense military situations, and will, no doubt, happen again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

 

Iranian plane crash

Quote

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek. None of the officials was authorized to speak publicly on the matter. 

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpot to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials told Newsweek.

https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313?amp=1&utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral

              ...........…...............................................................

Trump now wants US and Iran to work together

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-remarks-iran-missile-strike-1481084

Quote

President Donald Trump said that the United States and Iran should work together against their common foe of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), hoping the Islamic Republic would change course after the latest incident in the dramatic escalation of tensions in which Iran launched missiles at Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. and allied troops.

Edited by Curious layman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder at the Iranians motivation, given there apparent strategy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A grave mistake.
Confusion and bad decision during a very tense time.
IOW the 'fog' of war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, MigL said:

A grave mistake.
Confusion and bad decision during a very tense time.
IOW the 'fog' of war.

fair point.

Edited by dimreepr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

i think they might have set the missiles to automatically shoot down any incoming missiles and the system didn't know the difference between the plane and missiles.

Edited by J.C.MacSwell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The whole "imminence" thing seems to be collapsing on itself.

Given how they've dropped the ball on that re-visitation, there's little if no other reason to not notify the gang of eight other than to be fascists.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems that, as of early this morning, The Iranian President and the military leaders have admitted to the shootdown, apologized and offered condolences.
An act that was supposed to showcase Iranian strength and determination has made them look incompetent, even to their own people.
There are reports of general dissatisfaction with the way the government and armed forces handled the whole situation.
But I've also read that Iran has asked the NTSB ( American ) for help with the crash investigation; that seems like a good sign.

IIRC, John, Ronald Reagan unequivocally apologized for the USS Vincennes shootdown if the Iranair flight in 1988, compensation was paid, and a full accounting was eventually released to the world.

Of course none of that makes any difference to the people who lost their lives in two unnecessary incidents

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, MigL said:

I've also read that Iran has asked the NTSB ( American ) for help with the crash investigation; that seems like a good sign.

Indeed, but it also seems that nearly none of the parts of the plane nor the area were secured and essentially all have been gathered and removed from the site by scavengers. 

Edited by iNow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.