The_Questioner

Science and Religion: A Math Theory Request

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The odds of the group of us being here based on all the events that had to take place from the Big Bang till now are astronomical. But it's rather misleading. The odds of winning the lottery are also (near) astronomical, yet someone wins it all the time. In fact, we'd be shocked if no one won it.

So a better question wouldn't ask the odds of US being here, but instead would ask the odds of ANYONE existing in the universe. In which case we would calculate the odds are very good, if not 100%.

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20 hours ago, zapatos said:

The odds of the group of us being here based on all the events that had to take place from the Big Bang till now are astronomical. But it's rather misleading. The odds of winning the lottery are also (near) astronomical, yet someone wins it all the time. In fact, we'd be shocked if no one won it.

So a better question wouldn't ask the odds of US being here, but instead would ask the odds of ANYONE existing in the universe. In which case we would calculate the odds are very good, if not 100%.

I almost would agree... if the Big Bang and everything after this event had no impact.
But, that it does.
No Big Bang, no us.

Wouldn't you agree, good Sir?   :)

It's almost Chaos Theory... a butterfly flapping etc... .
And yet, in ALL that chaos: behold structure, order, LIFE!
As if conducting an orchestra.

Edited by The_Questioner

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20 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

I almost would agree... if the Big Bang and everything after this event had no impact.
But, that it does.
No Big Bang, no us.

Wouldn't you agree, good Sir?   :)
 

Of course I agree. That was kind of my point. The chances of you and me being here are astronomically small. If your mother chased a butterfly on the day you were conceived and she and your father delayed sex that afternoon by one minute because your mother happened to see that butterfly, you wouldn't be here talking to me. The sperm that was "you" would have likely ended up wasted.

So don't get hung up on the idea that the chance of YOU being here is significant in some way. If you weren't here, I'd be talking to someone else this morning. The way chemistry works, and the chances that a planet ends up in a goldilocks zone, and all of the other factors you mentioned, are all but guaranteed. Don't think yourself so special, you are just the result of the conditions around you.

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Zaps great post above reminded me of this quote from an author:

I am the universe expressing itself as a human being for a while

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1 hour ago, zapatos said:

The chances of you and me being here are astronomically small.

This is easy to say and difficult to prove.

Evidence please.

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2 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

I am here.

 

This is the wrong day for riddles sir.

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9 minutes ago, studiot said:

This is easy to say and difficult to prove.

Evidence please.

1
1

I just pinched myself.

Edited by dimreepr

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17 minutes ago, studiot said:

This is easy to say and difficult to prove.

Evidence please.

It's  quite a simple idea he mentioned. There are some 150 million spematazoa, if we assume a single mating act, then the chances of a particular spermatozoa making  the child that is you is 150 million to 1. About the same as winning the Euromillions.

Edited by StringJunky

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19 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

I just pinched myself.

Therefore the a priori probability (the usually quoted one) is exactly 1, as swansont told you many posts ago.

 

13 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

It's  quite a simple idea he mentioned. There are some 150 million spematazoa, if we assume a single mating act, then the chances of a particular spermatozoa making  the child that is you is 150 million to 1. About the same as winning the Euromillions.

This is evidence of what exactly?

And how does it stack up against all the other data, you have not taken into account?

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2 minutes ago, studiot said:

Therefore the a priori probability (the usually quoted one) is exactly 1, as swansont told you many posts ago.

Therefore, what evidence can you expect?

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2 minutes ago, dimreepr said:

Therefore, what evidence can you expect?

Since I have already said that I agree with swansont, I would would expect extraordinary evidence to support a claim that the probability is vanishingly low.

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Just now, studiot said:

Since I have already said that I agree with swansont, I would would expect extraordinary evidence to support a claim that the probability is vanishingly low.

2

That's not what Zap said .

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1 minute ago, dimreepr said:

That's not what Zap said .

Yes it's true.

Zap was talking about the existence or at least the presence (presumably on SF)  of two other people.

Isn't that what 'being here' means?

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1 minute ago, studiot said:

Isn't that what 'being here' means?

 

no

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2 hours ago, zapatos said:

The chances of you and me being here are astronomically small.

 

It is just that that brought this whole post.
Indeed, it occurred to me, that the chances of all this, of you and me, and 8 billion others, was astronomically small.

Ball of gas turns planet.
Comets rain down providing water, and lo and behold: one of them has a microbical spore on board in the form of a simple cell...

It dropped at the right time, seemingly, at the right spot even, almost as if making sure this cell was to survive.

In my humble opinion: it looks almost providence (this in the NOT religious way!!! So please do not turn this into an " I am trying to change minds!!! It is all but this, in fact, this is personal).
Meant to be, guided.

IF guided... then WHO or WHY would be the next question, logically...

This post should now probably be moved from Applied Maths, as we clearly cannot answer the first post (calculate X), and we moved on into non-maths water?
Thoughts?

Edited by The_Questioner
Fixed a few typos

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5 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

It is just that that brought this whole post.
Indeed, it occurred to me, that the chances of all this, of you and me, and 8 billion others, was astronomically small.

Ball of gas turns planet.
Comets rain down providing water, and lo and behold: one of them has a microbical spore on board in the form of a simple cell...e

It dropped at the right time, seemingly, at the right spot even, almost as if making sure this cell was to survive.

In my humble opinion: it looks almost providence (this in the NOT religious way!!! So please do not turn this into an " I am trying to change minds!!! It is all but this, in fact, this is personal).
Meant to be, guided.

IF guided... then WHO or WHY would be the next question, logically...

1

 

7 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

It is just that that brought this whole post.
Indeed, it occurred to me, that the chances of all this, of you and me, and 8 billion others, was astronomically small.

Ball of gas turns planet.
Comets rain down providing water, and lo and behold: one of them has a microbical spore on board in the form of a simple cell...

It dropped at the right time, seemingly, at the right spot even, almost as if making sure this cell was to survive.

In my humble opinion: it looks almost providence (this in the NOT religious way!!! So please do not turn this into an " I am trying to change minds!!! It is all but this, in fact, this is personal).
Meant to be, guided.

IF guided... then WHO or WHY would be the next question, logically...

1

yet here we are...

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1 hour ago, studiot said:

This is easy to say and difficult to prove.

Evidence please.

As StringJunky pointed out, the chances of 'my' sperm out of the 150 million my dad shot out winning the race to the egg were very small. It may not be 1 in 150 million as some are better swimmers than others, but it is still pretty small. And the chances of my dad being the 1 out of 150 million HIS dad shot out being the winner, which was a prerequisite for 'my' winning sperm to even have existed, has the same minuscule odds (about 1 in 150 million). How many generations do you want me to go back in time?

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4 minutes ago, zapatos said:

As StringJunky pointed out, the chances of 'my' sperm out of the 150 million my dad shot out winning the race to the egg were very small. It may not be 1 in 150 million as some are better swimmers than others, but it is still pretty small. And the chances of my dad being the 1 out of 150 million HIS dad shot out being the winner, which was a prerequisite for 'my' winning sperm to even have existed, has the same minuscule odds (about 1 in 150 million). How many generations do you want me to go back in time?

This post was not towards the YOU, an individual, but the human species as whole.
And not just the human species, but life here in general, from microbic over plants and animals, to us.

 

Here's what I find to be strange:
We consider ourselves to be intellectual beings.
We made incredible constructs, transportations, one names it.
Yet, when asked to calculate the odds of all being mere coincidence, we come to see, this is impossible...

Edited by The_Questioner

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12 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:


In my humble opinion: it looks almost providence (this in the NOT religious way!!! So please do not turn this into an " I am trying to change minds!!! It is all but this, in fact, this is personal).
Meant to be, guided.

 

Whatever floats your boat. People like you are why there are theists in the world. Why do we need evidence if in someone's humble opinion the look of something is all that is required?

I thought I saw Bob Marley's image in a piece of toast the other day. Now THAT was providential. I still have goosebumps.

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2 minutes ago, zapatos said:

Whatever floats your boat. People like you are why there are theists in the world. Why do we need evidence if in someone's humble opinion the look of something is all that is required?

I thought I saw Bob Marley's image in a piece of toast the other day. Now THAT was providential. I still have goosebumps.

Oh, Bob was the god of rasta!!!
I fully agree there with you.

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5 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

Here's what I find to be strange:
We consider ourselves to be intellectual beings.
We made incredible constructs, transportations, one names it.
Yet, when asked to calculate the odds of all being mere coincidence, we come to see, this is impossible...

You are being ridiculous and naive. How could I possibly calculate the odds of this planet being here when I have no data that tells me if there would be enough gas here to form this planet?

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1 minute ago, zapatos said:

You are being ridiculous and naive. How could I possibly calculate the odds of this planet being here when I have no data that tells me if there would be enough gas here to form this planet?

You missed the point of the question, Sir.
The original question was: calculate the odds, starting from Big Bang to now, us, being it possible to be just pure luck.

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12 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

Yet, when asked to calculate the odds of all being mere coincidence, we come to see, this is impossible...

I am here.

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11 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

This post was not towards the YOU, an individual, but the human species as whole.
And not just the human species, but life here in general, from microbic over plants and animals, to us.

I'm not sure you are reading my posts.

The odds of you and me being here are tiny.

The odds of anyone at all being here are less tiny.

The odds of this planet forming are small.

The odds of any planet at all forming are 100%

The odds of life existing on some planet somewhere is probably pretty good. So why is it so surprising to you that this planet with life is here? Given the laws of physics coupled with the matter and energy in the universe, the thought that life would exist is not daunting at all.

4 minutes ago, The_Questioner said:

You missed the point of the question, Sir.
The original question was: calculate the odds, starting from Big Bang to now, us, being it possible to be just pure luck.

IT IS NOT PURE LUCK. IT IS BASED ON PHYSICS.

I CAN'T CALCULATE THE ODDS. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE BECAUSE WE DO NOT HAVE THE DATA TO DO SO.

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