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The end of gasoline/diesel powered cars?


Moreno
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Majority of Western European countries have outlined the date when they will prohibit cars based on internal combustion on their roads. Typically these dates range from 2025 to 2040. The similar initiatives are attempted in India and China.

I have hard time to believe it is realistic. Do you? What technology are they going to implement to make it real?

Maybe what they've meant is plug-in hybrids rather than all-electric?

https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html

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It looks like the largest problems of EV/hybrids (which is the price of the batteries) is still far from the ultimate solution. Are they going improve zinc-air batteries (or some other inexpensive variety of batteries) well enough just in 20 years to make the breakthrough?

Edited by Moreno
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I wo

3 hours ago, Moreno said:

Majority of Western European countries have outlined the date when they will prohibit cars based on internal combustion on their roads. Typically these dates range from 2025 to 2040. The similar initiatives are attempted in India and China.

I have hard time to believe it is realistic. Do you? What technology are they going to implement to make it real?

Maybe what they've meant is plug-in hybrids rather than all-electric?

https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html

I also believe this is unrealistic, a good goal but unlikely to happen. What I would like to see is cities take the initiative and incrementally start banning certain classes of vehicles. This would also reduce congestion where it can be at it's worst. They could base it on fuel efficiency, emissions levels and what not, and make allowances for time of day (rush hour restrictions). Trucks could be allowed by permit. Contractors might be allowed in but have restrictions at rush hour etc.

Edited by J.C.MacSwell
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  • 2 weeks later...

Beware newspapers need to catch the public's attention. When Angela Merkel said "I can imagine that no car with an Otto or Diesel engine is sold in 2030", in some newspapers it became "Merkel decided to ban Diesel cars in 2030".

You believe electric cars are unrealistic... But humans have this ability to make unexpected things possible. For electric cars there is a very strong incentive. Think at LED lamps. Based on the ruinous tiny things just capable of telling "on-off", I thought all plans of LED lighting were foolish. But recently I replaced all my lamps by LED, because they work and are better. Companies have invested billions in that technology.

One key is that it suffices when a few people (at the right place!) believe a progress is possible and useful. Never mind if 99.99% of Mankind don't believe it. This is a superiority of a free country, where people can explore new direction and are allowed to fail, over a dictatorship where one single person decides everything and can only try to catch up what was done abroad.

Batteries are already good enough to move cars. In California, in Norway, electric cars sell very well. Trucks may be the next big market. Companies invest billions to develop batteries, they will improve. Whether the next ones will use lithium (which isn't expensive nor scarce), zinc or sodium, I don't know. It's impossible to predict 10 years in advance and with limited data. You know, all companies have long thought through before their heavy investments, and they made different decisions.

On 12/7/2018 at 1:11 AM, Moreno said:

What type of hydrogen storage and size of a fuel tank do you assume?

My preferred one is liquid hydrogen at 1atm with vacuum insulation. Decent density, and the tank is only as heavy as the hydrogen.

I'd have nothing against adsorption, but it seems to need a high pressure, which makes it less attractive.

Aeroplanes will use hydrogen soon, much more so than batteries, and their tanks will spread to cars.

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17 hours ago, Enthalpy said:

You believe electric cars are unrealistic... But humans have this ability to make unexpected things possible. 

I think that at present level of technology only metal-air fuel cells may allow to refuse from any motor fuels, but would require a giant investments in infrastructure and some technology improvement. They are obviously better than hydrogen, what makes a hydrogen powered cars historically obsolete. 

Those batteries which are electrically rechargeable look a much promising for plug-in hybrids than all-electric. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Don't forget steam engines. They push nuclear ships/submarines...

The last steam coal-locomotive(around 1950, designed and devoloped by the engeneer Livio Dante Porta) was more than 20% efficient!... 

So I'd say there're several ways to replace oil cars.

-Hybrid pellet cars'd can be powered by agricultural residues: bagasse, cotton stalk, cereal straw, etc... 

-Fuel cell cars have the best efficiency and are powered by very clean carburants: bioethanol and hydrogen.

-Electric cars.

-Maybe cold nuclear fusion cars 

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  • 2 weeks later...

One thing to consider is that it’s not at all rare for a car to be usable for 20+ years, so the many of the new petrol powered cars being made today would still conceivably be on the road by 2040.

Edited by Nod2003
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On 1/14/2019 at 5:34 PM, harlock said:

Don't forget steam engines. They push nuclear ships/submarines...

The last steam coal-locomotive(around 1950, designed and devoloped by the engeneer Livio Dante Porta) was more than 20% efficient!... 

So I'd say there're several ways to replace oil cars.

-Hybrid pellet cars'd can be powered by agricultural residues: bagasse, cotton stalk, cereal straw, etc... 

-Fuel cell cars have the best efficiency and are powered by very clean carburants: bioethanol and hydrogen.

-Electric cars.

-Maybe cold nuclear fusion cars 

Do you think there is enough agricultural residuals to power all the cars in the World?

Cold fusion suppose to be safe enough to fit in modern cars. Perhaps it needs to be aneutronic like boron-hydrogen fusion. Definitely not in this century and maybe not even in this millennia.

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when considering electric cars, I know that batteries often use rare elements.  I’m not sure how much of those are in the batteries of say a Tesla, but are there enough of those ores at reasonable price to actually replace the petroleum using vehicles?

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 1/29/2019 at 9:01 AM, Nod2003 said:

when considering electric cars, I know that batteries often use rare elements.  I’m not sure how much of those are in the batteries of say a Tesla, but are there enough of those ores at reasonable price to actually replace the petroleum using vehicles?

Doubtful. The total proved reserves of Lithium are 16 mln. of tons. It would be sufficient just for 160 mln. of vehicles at 100 kg of Lithium per vehicle.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Nod2003 said:

Hmmm, sounds like producers would need  to use some lower tech Ni-cad batteries or similar to make up the difference, with resulting lower efficiency.  Either that or there would have to be fewer cars.

Isn't Cadmium even much scarcer than Lithium? And extremely toxic...

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  • 1 month later...

Nissan promises to release later this year a new version of the LEAF with claimed range up to 226 miles. https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/03/20190304-leaf.html

I wasn't able to find an exact official specs on the 62 kWh battery, but some sources claim it weights around 300 kg. If this is true, then problem of a normal plug-in hybrid is almost solved. We can cut battery in half (150 kg) and obtain a hybrid with decent range of 113 miles. Maybe some additional not very large set of a high power batteries (similar to Lithium-titanate) will be needed to compensate for the power peaks. I wonder how Nissan was able to achieve that energy density and what kind of materials and rare metals they use. If this type of batteries could be produced at moderate price we are on the verge of plug-in hybrid revolution.

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  • 1 month later...
2 hours ago, Moreno said:

How realistic it would be to make a metal-air fuel cell which could be charged by an aluminum powder and release pure aluminum oxide powder as an "exhaust" right on the go?

How do you get the aluminum powder, preserve it, and make it oxidize in a controlled fashion? How much energy does this release?

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3 hours ago, Moreno said:

How realistic it would be to make a metal-air fuel cell which could be charged by an aluminum powder and release pure aluminum oxide powder as an "exhaust" right on the go?

There are a number of technical problems to be overcome before aluminium-air or aluminium-ion batteries are practical: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium–air_battery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium-ion_battery

I imagine there might be significant problems scaling up the recycling of the aluminium as well.

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