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Predicting lottery numbers.


NortonH
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2 minutes ago, swansont said:
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Moderator Note

What models are these, and who is making these predictions?

an answer is required.

 

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I saw a guy on youtube who was making predictions. He said they were accurate and there were loads of comments which agreed.

an answer has been given.

i will find the channel

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7 hours ago, NortonH said:

!

I saw a guy on youtube who was making predictions. He said they were accurate and there were loads of comments which agreed.

an answer has been given.

i will find the channel

!

Moderator Note

Please do. I am interested to see all of these comments that agree he is accurate on lottery predictions 50-100 years in the future.

 
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2 hours ago, NortonH said:

Not sure whether I can post links but I will try.

 

The rules require you to summerize links to youtube films so everybody can have a clear view of what you want to convey. Lets see it.

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On 13/11/2018 at 1:48 AM, koti said:

The rules require you to summerize links to youtube films so everybody can have a clear view of what you want to convey. Lets see it.

Well I have been through the video and although I know it is the right channel I am not now 100% sure that it is the correct video.

Basically the summary is that they show that the lottery machine of 36 balls is easy to define and the laws whcih govern it are very simple. The initial conditions are easy to determined to a high degree of accuracy and so with  a suitable model it should be no probelm.

On 12/11/2018 at 1:10 PM, iNow said:

What a pathetically long walk full of mental gymnastics just to obliquely challenge the credibility of climate models, climate models which are themselves proving to be more and more accurate with each passing day. Did I mention how pathetic this all is?

Actually I think I may have reacted to quickly. 

I apologize.

I have spent a couple of days thinking about the point you made and i think it has some merit.

The scenario I mentioned used 36 identical balls bouncing around in space with gravity applied and contained in a confined space. The climate consists of hundreds of different variables such as these listed here:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/30/earths-climate-system-is-ridiculously-complex-with-draft-link-tutorial/

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/21/the-ridiculousness-continues-climate-complexity-compiled/#comment-872002

These cannot be measured as precisely as the balls, of course so the starting position will not be as well understood.

But I see the point you are making. If we can predict the climate so accurately way in advance despite the fact that there are many more variables and they are not as easily measured then surely it must be possible to predict next week lottery numbers.

When I find the video I am lookng for you will see that the methodolgy they propose is pretty much as i described it.

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1 hour ago, NortonH said:

But I see the point you are making. If we can predict the climate so accurately way in advance despite the fact that there are many more variables and they are not as easily measured then surely it must be possible to predict next week lottery numbers.

That is not a valid comparison.

A more accurate analogy to the way climate models are actually used would be: you use your knowledge of the laws of physics and the lottery machine to build a simulation. You then run the simulation millions of times and look at the range of results. From this you conclude that that all combinations of numbers appear to be equally likely (within certain error bounds).

If, say, the balls all had a different weight proportional to their number, then the simulation might find that certain combinations are more likely. It would not be able to predict specific outcomes, but could tell you the range of outcomes you could expect.

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On 11/12/2018 at 6:52 AM, NortonH said:

Not sure whether I can post links but I will try.

 

!

Moderator Note

Your response is an almost 8-hour video, with no specification of what time they made the prediction, and it's in a language other than English. No, that's not what I was looking for.

 
2 hours ago, NortonH said:

I have spent a couple of days thinking about the point you made and i think it has some merit.

The scenario I mentioned used 36 identical balls bouncing around in space with gravity applied and contained in a confined space. The climate consists of hundreds of different variables such as these listed here:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/30/earths-climate-system-is-ridiculously-complex-with-draft-link-tutorial/

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/21/the-ridiculousness-continues-climate-complexity-compiled/#comment-872002

These cannot be measured as precisely as the balls, of course so the starting position will not be as well understood.

But I see the point you are making. If we can predict the climate so accurately way in advance despite the fact that there are many more variables and they are not as easily measured then surely it must be possible to predict next week lottery numbers.

When I find the video I am lookng for you will see that the methodolgy they propose is pretty much as i described it.

!

Moderator Note

Your claim was that your discussion had nothing to do with climate.

 
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