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When a Tweet swings markets


Ten oz
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By now we all understand that Trump often lies on twitter. One of the more Machiavellian things he does is proclaim policy changes which he hasn't actually made. Like when he proclaimed the military would not accept trans-gendered individuals yet it is or his repeated tweets about his travel banned which has actually been blocked, rewritten, blocked, and rewritten some more. The genius of the tweets of course is that his follows often assume the policy changes have been made. It  is a way for him to gloat about things his supporters wish were happening whether they actually happen or not. Those tweets, while ugly and dishonest, I view as politics as normal. A politician lying about what they've done or will do isn't new. 

What is new is Trump using Tweeter to threaten international partnerships and confuse the status of global economic trade.

Quote

 

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Monday, with major indexes seeing their biggest one-day drop in weeks and the Dow bearishly closing below a closely watched level for the first time in two years as fresh threats from President Donald Trump against U.S. trading partners underlined how the risk of protectionist policies has not left the market.

The day’s losses were widespread, with 26 of the Dow’s 30 components ending lower, along with nine of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors. Tech was the biggest decliner of the day, however, dropping 2.3% in its biggest one-day decline since early April.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-drop-more-than-150-points-as-trump-makes-more-trade-threats-2018-06-25

 

For those who do not follow Stock Markets closely the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down over 2,000 points since January (3 trillion dollars) which is the longest sustained losses in 9yrs. Not merely yesterday but all year Trump has been tweeting out various threats concerning trade and tariffs often changing his mind or the target of his attacks week to week. The Stock Market reacts every time he does this something his economic team absolutely is aware of. If anyone had any advance warning, even 30 minutes, of what Trump might tweet next regarding Steel, Aluminium, China, media mergers, or etc they could use that information to make a lot of money in a very short time buying or shorting stocks. 

Is this ethical? If it was discovered that Trump was using his influence to swing market via a tweet to enrich himself or others is that insider trading? In a post Trump world what laws should the U.S. put in place to ensure a repeat of this can never happen again?

*DJIA is a stock market index that shows how 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States have traded during a standard trading session in the stock market. It is the most commonly used index to gauge the status of U.S. markets. 

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2 hours ago, Ten oz said:

Is this ethical? If it was discovered that Trump was using his influence to swing market via a tweet to enrich himself or others is that insider trading? In a post Trump world what laws should the U.S. put in place to ensure a repeat of this can never happen again?

I thought you already had laws against it.  It's OK though - Trump won't do that - he promised to sell of all his holdings before taking the job anyway iirc in his election campaign, so it won't be relevant.

2 hours ago, Ten oz said:

...what laws should the U.S. put in place to ensure a repeat of this can never happen again?

Make everyone under the age of 16 attend a 'school' or some kind of educational institution which will teach them not to be sucked in by snake oil salesmen.  Maybe teach them some values so that they can spot this kind of charlatan a mile off and not vote him into power in the first place. Teach them to love their neighbours instead of building walls to keep them out etc.

His nature was so obvious pretty much the rest of the world could see all of this coming a mile off. How did you not? :-( 

 

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3 hours ago, Ten oz said:

the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down over 2,000 points since January (3 trillion dollars) which is the longest sustained losses in 9yrs

Your footnote suggests to me that you anticipated this criticism, but DJIA is only one pretty limited view that most informed people on this topic tend to ignore since it's too heavily driven by the FANG stocks. The S&P 500 is probably a better marker and is relatively flat / slightly up since January 1, while the Nasdaq is up about 8%. 

I agree with your broader point about the problematic insider nature of Trumps trading, his families profiteering and prioritizing personal businesses over the american people, as well as congress* secretary Wilbur Ross using tariffs and shorting of stocks to further line his pockets, and I'm amazed nobody has done anything to mandate that these men (or others in the cabinet) divest where obvious conflicts of interest exist.

 

*EDIT: That was supposed to say Commerce Secretary, not congress

1 hour ago, DrP said:

How did you not?

Most of us did. He lost by 3 million votes

Edited by iNow
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50 minutes ago, DrP said:

thought you already had laws against it.  It's OK though

Insider trading laws are directed towards people who work for or are directly affiliated with a corporation using knowledge which isn't yet public. They don't cover ones ability to influence the market by spitballing policy ideas via Twitter. 

28 minutes ago, iNow said:

Your footnote suggests to me that you anticipated this criticism, but DJIA is only one pretty limited view that most informed people on this topic tend to ignore since it's too heavily driven by the FANG stocks. The S&P 500 is probably a better marker and is relatively flat / slightly up since January 1, while the Nasdaq is up about 8%. 

Full disclosure I own shares of FB, AAPL, and NFLX. I have a great year. 

28 minutes ago, iNow said:

 

I agree with your broader point about the problematic insider nature of Trumps trading, his families profiteering and prioritizing personal businesses over the american people, as well as congress secretary Wilbur Ross using tariffs and shorting of stocks to further line his pockets, and I'm amazed nobody has done anything to mandate that these men (or others in the cabinet) divest where obvious conflicts of interest exist.

Post Trump a lot of laws will change. Even Conservatives don't want anyone to be able to do what Trump is doing ever again. 

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On 6/26/2018 at 9:39 AM, iNow said:

The S&P 500 is probably a better marker and is relatively flat / slightly up since January 1, while the Nasdaq is up about 8%. 

Quote

 

The U.S. stock market is a few days from hitting a notable milestone, but it isn’t one that investors will feel particularly good about.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA  and the S&P 500  have been mired in correction territory for months, ever since Feb. 8, when concerns that inflation was returning to the economy sparked a selloff that led to their dropping 10% from record levels hit earlier in the year.

Amid months of rangebound trading, neither index has been able to fully recover and notch new records, which is what would be needed for them to exit correction territory (the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.79%  , which never officially corrected, hit a record earlier this month).

Based on their Thursday closing levels, the Dow would need to rise about 9% to hit a new record and exit correction territory, while the S&P 500 would need to gain 5.5%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-days-away-from-setting-a-bearish-record-2018-06-28

 

What is troublesome to me about this is that it seems deliberate. There is no reason for Trump to tweet out tariff threats and it is impossible his economic team isn't aware that it impacts the stock market. Trade negotiations have traditionally been handle very formally  with dates pushed off several months for final decisions to avoid negatively impacting markets. There is intention here and it reeks of corruption. 

The days of pensions are gone for most. People's retirements are more and more reliant on the stock market. Major index being flat or negative for several months means that 401ks are losing money.  

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We're also seeing China implementing counter measures, like eliminating tariffs and sanctions on OTHER countries which supply the same goods the US previously supplied to them. They're ramping up to no longer care about our tariffs on their goods, which will hurt a sizable portion of our citizens beyond the challenges they're already facing

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12 minutes ago, iNow said:

We're also seeing China implementing counter measures, like eliminating tariffs and sanctions on OTHER countries which supply the same goods the US previously supplied to them. They're ramping up to no longer care about our tariffs on their goods, which will hurt a sizable portion of our citizens beyond the challenges they're already facing

Yes, China will adapt and its people will too...  by decree. America can't win. The other thing is, I don't think there are other countries behind America either unless they are blackmailed, as the US is trying to do with Iran.

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1 hour ago, iNow said:

We're also seeing China implementing counter measures, like eliminating tariffs and sanctions on OTHER countries which supply the same goods the US previously supplied to them. They're ramping up to no longer care about our tariffs on their goods, which will hurt a sizable portion of our citizens beyond the challenges they're already facing

Yep, neither Democrats or Republicans agree with the strategy yep Trump persists. It seems intentional to me. Like there is something in it for Trump personally and the fall out  for U.S. businesses really doesn't matter. 

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On 6/26/2018 at 6:40 AM, Ten oz said:

 Is this ethical? If it was discovered that Trump was using his influence to swing market via a tweet to enrich himself or others is that insider trading? In a post Trump world what laws should the U.S. put in place to ensure a repeat of this can never happen again?

Ethical? Certainly not.

But I don't think there is a law against it for high-level government officials as long as it they aren't getting insider information from corporations. I think Senators and Cabinet members, especially in the present-day sea of corruption, have made money with "insider" knowledge of what they are going to try and pass.  

Of course, prior to this administration, presidents have put their holdings into a blind trust, so they would have no way of knowing if a particular stock or sector being boosted would benefit their portfolio.

 

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31 minutes ago, swansont said:

Of course, prior to this administration, presidents have put their holdings into a blind trust, so they would have no way of knowing if a particular stock or sector being boosted would benefit their portfolio.

I still can't believe we trusted to the honor system on that one. We'll have to change that, when he's gone. 

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2 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

I still can't believe we trusted to the honor system on that one. We'll have to change that, when he's gone

We had this conversation when he was inaugurated. I'm hoping something nice and juicy is going to emerge around the time of the mid-terms. Paul Manafort getting $10m off a Russian close to Putin is a good sign.

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1 hour ago, swansont said:

Ethical? Certainly not.

But I don't think there is a law against it for high-level government officials as long as it they aren't getting insider information from corporations. I think Senators and Cabinet members, especially in the present-day sea of corruption, have made money with "insider" knowledge of what they are going to try and pass.  

Of course, prior to this administration, presidents have put their holdings into a blind trust, so they would have no way of knowing if a particular stock or sector being boosted would benefit their portfolio.

 

One good thing which will come about because of Trump is Congress reaching across party lines and strengthening numerous laws surrounding the executive branch. Trump should be the last President to refuse to release his taxes, give family members security clearance level positions, refuse to move assets into trusts, attempt to establish back door communications circumventing the State Dept. and Congressional committees without being impeach for it, and etc, etc, etc. Everything with Trump is a gray area or loophole. Is the private twitter account he's still using as President a public record? That was the issue will the email server right, that using it for official government stuff made everything on it an public. Does that apply to twitter; can we read all the Direct messages and would it be a crime if he deleted them? A great many of new save guards will follow Trump. 

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5 minutes ago, Ten oz said:

One good thing which will come about because of Trump is Congress reaching across party lines and strengthening numerous laws surrounding the executive branch. Trump should be the last President to refuse to release his taxes, give family members security clearance level positions, refuse to move assets into trusts, attempt to establish back door communications circumventing the State Dept. and Congressional committees without being impeach for it, and etc, etc, etc. Everything with Trump is a gray area or loophole. Is the private twitter account he's still using as President a public record? That was the issue will the email server right, that using it for official government stuff made everything on it an public. Does that apply to twitter; can we read all the Direct messages and would it be a crime if he deleted them? A great many of new save guards will follow Trump. 

It's bad when you have to enact laws that force a president to behave correctly instead of it being assumed to be innate in them .

Edited by StringJunky
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Just now, StringJunky said:

it's bad when you have to enact laws that force a president to behave correctly instead of it being innate in any incumbent.

It is bad but it also isn't new. Political corruption wasn't invented by Trump. He is just benefiting from his team being unwilling to take a loss to fix it. 

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1 minute ago, StringJunky said:

it's bad when you have to enact laws that force a president to behave correctly instead of it being innate in any incumbent.

Hopefully Trump will forever kill the concept that ruthless wealthy white male businessmen are who this country needs to lead it. Let this be the consequence to the GOP for not standing up. 

I'm still shocked the concept persists. I would've thought more people had been ripped off by businessmen like him. Everyone I know seems to have several stories of heartlessness and deception in the corporate/business world.

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1 minute ago, Ten oz said:

It is bad but it also isn't new. Political corruption wasn't invented by Trump. He is just benefiting from his team being unwilling to take a loss to fix it. 

He is setting a precedent with respect to the things mentioned, like not stepping away from his business dealings. tax etc.

2 minutes ago, Phi for All said:

Hopefully Trump will forever kill the concept that ruthless wealthy white male businessmen are who this country needs to lead it. Let this be the consequence to the GOP for not standing up. 

I'm still shocked the concept persists. I would've thought more people had been ripped off by businessmen like him. Everyone I know seems to have several stories of heartlessness and deception in the corporate/business world.

May be the anti-communist propaganda of earlier times still runs in enough Americans to resist a change to a more socialist outlook.

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22 minutes ago, StringJunky said:

He is setting a precedent with respect to the things mentioned, like not stepping away from his business dealings. tax etc.

Kennedy hired his brother, Nixon didn't release his taxes, and George W Bush's old man invested family money in military contractors who benefited from the Iraq war while his mom invested in Private prisons. All of this has been done before but never so in our faces by a single figure without repercussions. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 26/06/2018 at 12:40 PM, Ten oz said:

By now we all understand that Trump often lies on twitter. One of the more Machiavellian things he does is proclaim policy changes which he hasn't actually made. Like when he proclaimed the military would not accept trans-gendered individuals yet it is or his repeated tweets about his travel banned which has actually been blocked, rewritten, blocked, and rewritten some more. The genius of the tweets of course is that his follows often assume the policy changes have been made. It  is a way for him to gloat about things his supporters wish were happening whether they actually happen or not. Those tweets, while ugly and dishonest, I view as politics as normal. A politician lying about what they've done or will do isn't new. 

What is new is Trump using Tweeter to threaten international partnerships and confuse the status of global economic trade.

For those who do not follow Stock Markets closely the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is down over 2,000 points since January (3 trillion dollars) which is the longest sustained losses in 9yrs. Not merely yesterday but all year Trump has been tweeting out various threats concerning trade and tariffs often changing his mind or the target of his attacks week to week. The Stock Market reacts every time he does this something his economic team absolutely is aware of. If anyone had any advance warning, even 30 minutes, of what Trump might tweet next regarding Steel, Aluminium, China, media mergers, or etc they could use that information to make a lot of money in a very short time buying or shorting stocks. 

Is this ethical? If it was discovered that Trump was using his influence to swing market via a tweet to enrich himself or others is that insider trading? In a post Trump world what laws should the U.S. put in place to ensure a repeat of this can never happen again?

*DJIA is a stock market index that shows how 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States have traded during a standard trading session in the stock market. It is the most commonly used index to gauge the status of U.S. markets. 

Yes, the markets are affected by people of power making statements. This means they need to think what they say will be heard, and, if they say something about trans gender soldiers. they will affect the democratic community that is all lesbian and gay and that affiliated. If that happens, as most of the traders on wall street are democratic, they will become dubious or doubtful of a market gain, due to the baggage they bring with them, that they feel the state of markets is affected by other traders that will defy the state, and then the currency will plunge, of course  they are related, you see?

Now, if you were to observe this is like running around saying the sky is falling, then that would be a good observation. This liberal mess needs to get out of there, just because they are bred in cities and go to college doesn't give them common sense.

~ Hell, if I were there, I would start buying when the president says something stupid, with all these little softies around... Then you will get something that is still worth something, with the exchange rate going down, so it will be the same thing for cheaper!

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9 hours ago, Brett Nortj said:

~ Hell, if I were there, I would start buying when the president says something stupid, with all these little softies around... Then you will get something that is still worth something, with the exchange rate going down, so it will be the same thing for cheaper!

You are missing the point. The President and his inner circle have the ability to game the system. In the past Trump has lashed out at govt contractors like Boeing, trading partners, and threatened to pass legislation which he either has no power to do or true intention. As the market moves he and his cohorts can be buying and selling with impunity profiting off the office of President's ability to impact markets. Insider trading is a crime. 

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12 hours ago, Brett Nortj said:

This liberal mess needs to get out of there, just because they are bred in cities and go to college doesn't give them common sense.

Does sophistication scare you? Educated, experientially-based critical thinking is far more objective and effective than what you call "common sense" (which always seems to be code for "This is what I would do!"). If you can't see that the current "conservative" administration is acting anything BUT conservatively, I think you need to check the way they're spending. Check the way they're profiting. Check the way they're embracing dictatorships for investment opportunities. 

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