Lord Antares Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 (edited) Attitude? Sarcasm? I was actually offering you a compliment that you had made good headway in a broad and difficult subject, without formal training. Sorry. I thought you were being sarcastic about that. Thanks for the compliment. It means a lot to me. To be fair, you criticized me for using made-up terminology in post #1, whereas you only provided the correct one in post #21, which I thought was a bit unwarranted. I had to make something up to better convery my thoughts. I only used my terminology once after your post but just to connect yours to mine so that it would be clear what I meant. You criticized that as well, hence my comments about the attitude. I just want to let you know, I have respect for your knowledge, but you need to understand that I need clarification for a lot of things, since I am in no way a mathematician. This is a particular shame as this is the only thread with any serious technical content in the first twenty on the current/recent list. I agree with the sentiment that the threads with serious technical content are what makes this forum. So let's leave all of this attitude and approach chit-chat behind and get back to the content. One more thing tho: As far as I can tell you have not responded to/ignored all of them. I had to leave for work so I wanted to point a few things out quickly without having time to respond to the real questions. Ok, so... However you had reached an stumbling block, which I identify as mixing up the fundamental difference between before and after the event. Can you elaborate a bit? I did say that it's different if you don't know the result so you give odds. I said that the odds are 1 after the event has happened or if you know for sure that it is going to happen. Is there something wrong with this? I did ask if you have a working definition of probability, because this is important, as well as offering many relevant areas/subject heading for discussion. Well, I would define probability as likelihood of an event happening. That's what I considered to be practical odds (again, using my terms just to show what I meant). So, for me, the practical odds of a coin toss or a die roll are 1 in 2 and 1 in 6 respectively. The odds of both are 1 in 1 if either the result has happened or can hypothetically calculate the physics of the coin/die landing after the initial toss/throw. I called these technical odds. From my understanding of your posts, I used the priori approach for the former. The latter, from what you said, shouldn't be really considered probability because you always know the result. Am I understanding you correctly? I will adopt the proper terms but first I need to understand completely what they mean. I am also not sure how the subjective approach works. What is the relevance of assigning the probability of 1 for something you can't be certain will happen? What would the odds of 0.6 mean in the subjective approach? That you're a bit less certain and you also can't know the result? That's what confuses me. Can you elaborate a bit on that? Let me know if I need to answer some other questions Edited February 21, 2017 by Lord Antares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
studiot Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I am expecting a long telephone conversation with someone in Germany in a couple of minutes but I will expand on the headings I have introduced and explain what I mean later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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