druS

Thanks Ken. I will find time to dig into your response. Really appreciate you putting the time in to provide it.

Perhaps you can offer a better reference then. What we have from beecee is a detour to a site that invokes me to get excited but does not offer me the film that apparently I need to watch to answer my question. I have seen many scenarios here on this forum where that would meet with moderators making comment. I am happy watch it. Open minded. But the URL sends me to a place that is openly seeking support for advocacy and does not offer viewing of the film. And with or without this possibly eye opening film, my question is very basic. IS a hindcast accurately reported as a projection?

Yes agree beecee. But we confuse a question of science (strengths or otherwise of hindcasting and the accuracy of the reporting) with a matter of ethics or philosophy (cautionary principal) and policy (what we should do about it). My query here is about the system of hindcasting and the accuracy of reporting the results as a projection.

Hi Michael, mate I will certainly dig into this site (caught time poor right now with study) but tell me - it's not the same thing as the Chinese EAST is it?

beecee, I'm not trying to be funny, I'd like your thoughts (from the reference paper) 'Hindcast' attribution method Is there not a difference between a forecast and a hindcast? A difference between something that a simulation "projects" to something that it looks back on?

I've been surprised that this report in the local Australian popular press has not tipped interest. calin https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/china-attempts-to-create-an-artificial-sun/10495536 My understanding was that once temperature were achieved of something like 60million K that the system would be self sustaining. Here they claim more than that but that it was maintained shortly. What am I missing? Why aren't physicists talking?

Awesome work as usual. While I realised that Fourier transforms "peel apart" (non mathematical and egregiously rough perhaps) the source waves in a signal I wouold not have considred the importance of carefully addressing the frequency and time domains. For a sine wave that only lasts a short time, there is a wider range of frequencies around the signal frequency. This makes perfect sense - I just never would have related it to this:. At the end of the day starting with Fourier tranforms, using Plank's Constant (I presume as a statement of accuracy?) , deriving (please do correct my clumsiness) an inequality which becomes a statement about the Heisenberg uncertainty principal - this is an incredible act of tautology. I may only catch glimpses of it, but it does help remove some of the fear of the bizarreness of QM.

I am not even going to try conceptualise this with my knowledge level, just say that hey, I'm on my way, its going to be slow, but I am coming. In the mean time Eise FWIW you just elevated to sitting behind Sean Carrol as inspiration behind my trying to learn the math behind Quantum. And that makes Feynman #3. Just wow. In quantum mechanics, the momentum and position wave functions are Fourier transform pairs, to within a factor of Planck's constant. With this constant properly taken into account, the inequality above becomes the statement of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. That is a beautiful statement in so many ways, most of which I don't understand, but I'm getting a hint at the beauty. Thank you. It's a statement I am going to hang on to until I understand more than just the aesthetics.

Thermal storage for air-conditioning is not new, it's a little more complex than your scheme but essentially you've covered the basics. There needs to be a method of moderating the temperature of the air being cooled - it may be a more efficient to use very cold air but there are limitations around thermal comfort and people reacting to cold drafts. I haven't seen systems which bring in external ice though there is no reason not to - short of materials handling logistics. Generally the way that commercial systems work is to use cheap electricity in off peak (night time) when there is a lessor requirement for cooling, to produce ice in stead. And then us the ice for cooling during peak (day time). It does help emissions/carbon etc as it reduces peak load and helps flatten power consumption. The generators are more efficient when closer to peak than at low load. Alternatives are storing chilled water and also "phase change" systems - typically CO2/dry ice.

Nitrogen is roughly 80% of air. Changing from air to nitrogen isn't going to have any material impact. As the sole contributor. However if the nitrogen is dry that would solve the problem. So would using dry air. Removing the air also solves the issue. I'd suggest doing the packaging in a very dry environment. BTW why would you take a tablet from a hot truck to a fridge? Oh another way would be to pack the product in a refrigerated environment to start with. When it goes to a hot truck humidity in the residual air get's smaller, and when it is re-refrigerated you are simply back where you were in packaging.

Wartec, I'd look to a bachelor in Science, and a math major. In my course subjects can be chosen in that background within computing. You are likely to have covered mechanics by that point, but if you need the paper look to a post-grad engineering degree with a computing specialist. If you need it. Depends on the university and the courses offered. Look into it.

Sean Carrol (my favourite physicist who is alive) suggests that only 1 in 4 of his PhD students get a job in theoretical physics. AP I am 56 years old and there is no way I have a likelihood of being one of Sean's 1:4. I'm chasing it anyway, bloke. You, you at 14 asking these questions, hell I'm jealous. Just go for it. In terms of tertiary study, I can only speak from my limited experience. High school fills a background for tertiary study. So compared to the course I am doing right now, if you do Physics at school with advanced math - you'll take about a year (part time) off my bachelor. Then you want to do a bachelor in science (physics). I'd suggest you need work in maths and physics. So a dual major might appeal. Or not. My current study is problematic as I can't fit all my interests into a double major. At the moment my solution is to focus on a math major and get very broad with everything else. I'm not sure it will last. Ultimately you will want post grad (the bachelor is just a start point) and in partical physics it is likely to be a PhD in theoretical physics. Huh! That's a mouthfull of possibilities. In the mean time my advice is to stick, seriously stick, to the stuff that you find interesting. If it is interesting at 14 it will be also at 56, don't fricking loose time. God I'd love to be hitting this right now at 14. Ultimately, just do it.

Before this discussion may be shut down, I just wanted to say just how much I have enjoyed the responses to OP, especially to the "long termers" here. I'm nothing but a novice but increasingly intrigued by math, for once a discussion I could largely follow. Cheers people.

Or the building is old and built to old standards. Or they had not worked to best practice modern design. Or the US is behind in building standards. Or they the systems worked which is why emergency teams were there etc etc . Who knows. Having an emergency does not in itself mean a failure of design. The 1:100 benchmarks should be under review pretty much everywhere - a basic tool of adaptation. Though in my experience it tends to happen through Green Building Ratings Systems - such as LEEDS in the US. Legislation and the Standard writers tend to lag the latest thinkers such as adaptation measures in LEEDS (or GreenStar in Australia, or BREAM in the UK). Generally (as I mentioned) this particular issue would be handled through entries to the basements rising to a 1:100 (or other design) level before ramping down. But it won't stop every eventuality. On the whole there have been few experiences like the one under discussion. Not something that is going to suddenly impact building standards around the globe. Where say, something like Grenfell Tower fire in London - certainly impacting local building standards here in Sydney, and I suspect a rolling impact around the world.

Building rules on lifts (elevators) differ around the world, I speak from experience in Australia and the UK - not USA. Cell/Mobile reception Lift cars can and are sometimes made of glass. The core that lifts sit inside are mostly made of structural concrete, though sometimes lightweight infill cores are used. Generally it is a matter for efficiency of structural engineering and you would lose an aweful lot of space to sit the lift outside of the shaft. This is sometimes done in lobbies etc where a steel structure is used with glass, and a glass lift car. You can then see through. But that does not necessarily give you mobile/cell reception. External glass curtain walls contribute most of the interference issue to mobile/cell reception in city towers. This is overcome by DAS (Digital Antennae System) systems - essentially a repeater system plugged into cable and distributed through the building. Most Premium grade buildings are briefed to maintain reception in lift cars (granted that from personal experience it is not easy to achieve 100%). But mobile/cell is not an emergency call out system. Lifts are required to have handsets which call back to a central point - generally the lift service provider. AND a stopped lift should be noted back in the control system anyway so that a call out should be alerted. "Airholes"/Lift Shaft ventilation This generally depends on the size of shaft and speed of the lift, but most lift shafts will have vents to reduce pressure build up as the cars move up and down. It isn't really for fresh air for human breathing - there should be enough air in a shaft that this is not a problem anyway. Lift "flood measures" The lift pit will generally have a sump which in normal circumstances should be dry. You would normally expect a float system in that sump that is linked to the building control system. This is primarily for equipment protection, but should also set off alarms in this scenario. I note that far and away the most likely reason behind lift shaft flooding is a burst pipe or some similar internal issue. And this too should have already alerted on the building control systems. External flooding would be something you would expect the building management to step in on. Though if this is "flash" flooding possibly not quick enough. But someone should know what is going on and be calling in assistance. In flood prone areas, design would usually involve unseen barriers at street level to keep extrernal water out on the basements - up to a limit anyway. If there is catastrophic flash flooding you wont keep the water out. As others have said, it isn't common. In general existing building design and should be enough, if implemented reasonably.

We seem to have forgotten about the quoll. I've never sighted one in the bush (not for want of looking in areas they are meant to exist) and wish the researchers all the best in their endeavours.

Loving it - plenty for me to cogitate here. Give me a moment or two. Thanks so far hyper

Hypervalent_iodine - thanks - i did expect responses that required more thinking on my part! 1. Can we start with why the d-block electron arrangement is 3d in the fourth period. 2. Thence to the specifics with Cr and Cu. In this case the stability issue seems like an observation rather than information behind why it is this way. Full valence electrons create a stable arrangement before we consider the d block. SOmething changes here where all of a sudden there is stability mid-period. 3. The exact cause can get fairly involved. I guess that I want to nudge that issue. Maybe I don't know enough to follow, but at the moment I haven't been able to find anything. Note that I have posited this thread under chemistry - I'm hoping to not end up too deep in quantum. 3. With Fe I need to look at the orbital diagrams or electronic configurations? Does that not take us back to my initial query? Perhaps though this is something that is not what I have learned yet? I'm comfortable with electron configuration up to Argon, and the step through d block doesn't look that hard. But maybe I'm missing something? Cheers Dru

I'm between study periods at the moment and have gone back to something that I noted as interesting during the last study period. Here is a quote: "...the transition metals have the general configuration [Ar]4s23dn except chromium (4s13d5) and copper (4s13d10). The reasons for these exceptions are complex" [Zumdahl et al - Introductory Chemistry: A Foundation] ps I had to edit the super scripts and trust I have it correct. Digging through the various web based tutorials I can work out writing the electron configurations (with cheat notes) but so far nothing to explain why, just "it gets complex". The half shell and complete shell being stable isn't really it either - why is that? OR at least what is the background? Why are the electron configurations for Cu and Cr the way they are? It would be great if I could grasp, or at least be a little clearer, why and when Fe forms the cation iron(II) or iron(III). Let alone what is going on in something like Fe3O4. [I believe a mix of iron(II) and Iron(III) is happening but have no logic behind it.] How does this relate to the concept of noble metals? Why are Cu, Ag and Au noble, but Zn, Cd and Hg not always considered noble?

studiot, I doubt I am the only one who wont miss your posts. Plenty goes over my head, but I learn a little bit every time. It is never imo wasted effort.

I am utterly astonished that there was no form of back up cooling. Astonished. Likewise at construction standards in the control room which I would hope would be designed as a safe house under emergency conditions.

beecee This force, I couldn't follow where it is. Between the quarks, or inside the quarks?

I'm astounded that you haven't seen a funnel web. And I wont run through sharks as it is a thing that perhaps I will cut across more often than people who don't spend much time on the water. Nor how far south irukaji actually travel. In the mean time - can't see how it impacts the human genome, which is where we started.

Where I sit in Sydney (potentially) lethal animals it would be statistically high that you could meet within 100m would be a very small number of spiders. Fatality rate unlikely to be high though, certainly with modern medicine. In the harbour of course there are untold species of sharks, though realistically only the bull shark should be considered an actual risk. Further north in Brisbane you'd add the deadly brown snake, and in outer suburbs Taipan, red belly black etc. North again add the salty (crocodile), irukanji (and a small number of other jellyfish), add tigers and hammerheads (sharks). Continue north to add cassowary if you are foolish enough to disturb a male on a nest or protecting young. BUT at that point we have strayed, no deviated completely into the world of infotainment. Add a throbbing sound track and an American accent commentary along the lines of "a wild boar on three legs gorged my brother!". You'll find it on fox and time of the week. None of this has any statistical chance of impacting human evolution. In the mean time as a subjective observation from living here for decades, our gene pool now has statistically a much higher influence from the people of Asia, people live longer and are more healthy. Our rate of natural population increase is steadily on a downtrend, made up by migration. People stay in education longer. Technology in our lives seems on an exponential increase. Also note that the first nations of Australia lived here during the time of the mega fauna. Giant crocodiles, giant carnivorous kangaroos, giant wombats that followed annual migration patterns following annual rains through the grasslands of internal Australia. (WHich had already changed form the rainforests of Gondwanaland with plenty of earlier species that did not adapt.) These species failed to adapt quickly enough to the drying of the continent and no longer exist. The only megafauna left today would be the salty, emu, cassowary, possibly the grey kangaroo (at 6 feet tall). And the introduced camel. The first nation people adapted and survived. Differences to the extinct mega fauna? Surely agility, adaptability, resilience, mobility and intelligence.

The definition I have is: The system of observation and experimentation (the scientific method) to discover the laws which govern the universe; and the body of knowledge resulting from this system. I would add that by it's very nature it is empirical not metaphysical. Step to philosophy if you wish to go there. But honest, where are you going?