Jump to content

Statistics Question


Dubbelosix

Recommended Posts

Ok, imagine you had an infinite deck of cards of random faces - one of those cards has a picture of you on it.

 

The chances of course are absolutely ziltch of you ever picking out the right card - but suppose as a fluke, or miracle, you manage to pick the right card, we would say (?) the chances of you picking the right card was 1 in an infinity. 

 

Let's change the situation and the rules slightly. This time we have a second deck of cards as well as the first deck of cards. In the second deck of cards, you have an infinite amount of blank cards. In the first pack, still an infinite amount of faces. This time you are not looking for your face specifically, this time finding any face on a card will do. 

 

Picking a card, you get a face card: So...

 

1. you had an infinite amount of cards that you could have found a face on

 

2. You had an infinite amount of cards you couldn't have found a face on

 

What are the chances you would have found a card with a face on it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

Ok, imagine you had an infinite deck of cards of random faces - one of those cards has a picture of you on it.

 

The chances of course are absolutely ziltch of you ever picking out the right card - but suppose as a fluke, or miracle, you manage to pick the right card, we would say (?) the chances of you picking the right card was 1 in an infinity. 

 

Let's change the situation and the rules slightly. This time we have a second deck of cards as well as the first deck of cards. In the second deck of cards, you have an infinite amount of blank cards. In the first pack, still an infinite amount of faces. This time you are not looking for your face specifically, this time finding any face on a card will do. 

 

Picking a card, you get a face card: So...

 

1. you had an infinite amount of cards that you could have found a face on

 

2. You had an infinite amount of cards you couldn't have found a face on

 

What are the chances you would have found a card with a face on it?

The first thing I need to ask is whether you mean "probability" when you use the word "chance" in your second sentence and the last sentence?

Let's be clear: There are well-known complex mathematics employed when seeking to calculate the probability of an event or outcome. I learned this in my two semesters of Probability and Statistics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh no, it's not an operation I am doing in the OP, and I am certainly beyond the sillyness of statements like 0/0. 

You can arrange them in a particular way, that it depends on how the infinities are stacked on each other. You could assume they are equally divided... this is a good question and requires someone with good mathematical knowledge to answer it.

If they are equally divided, does this effect the statistics so that the chance becomes something other than 1 in infinity?

Edited by Dubbelosix
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

Yes... I don't actually equate the two - probability can be completely deterministic. In this case, above, I want us to think purely in cases, of ''what is the chance this and that will happen'' in terms of a probability of it happening. 

I can't resolve "in terms of a probability of it happening" with the words that precede them. You have dragged in the exact subject that I ask you about specifically. Do you wish to exclude the entirety of the mathematics and methods used to calculate probabilities? You imply yes, then imply no in the same sentence. This we all can agree is a source of difficulty and probable confusion in the reader of such a sentence. (eggshells trampled under foot.)

Edited by scherado
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

You can arrange them in a particular way, that it depends on how the infinities are stacked on each other. You could assume they are equally divided... this is a good question and requires someone with good mathematical knowledge to answer it.

Well, it can obviously be approached through limits, but that would a require a definition of each of the functions. Otherwise I can't see how the answer is anything other than "undefined" (or meaningless).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Strange said:

Well, it can obviously be approached through limits, but that would a require a definition of each of the functions. Otherwise I can't see how the answer is anything other than "undefined" (or meaningless).

 

Explain what you mean by undefined?

 

You understand the situation, I have given you two infinities, from which you can pick any card. It's an unphysical situation, then yes, but its a thought-experiment which does have a mathematical explanation somewhere outside of whether it is plausible. 

22 minutes ago, scherado said:

I can't resolve "in terms of a probability of it happening" with the words that precede them. You have dragged in the exact subject that I ask you about specifically. Do you wish to exclude the entirety of the mathematics and methods used to calculate probabilities? You imply yes, then imply no in the same sentence. This we all can agree is a source of difficulty and probable confusion in the reader of such a sentence. (eggshells trampled under foot.)

 

I don't know what you mean, you might be a mathematician, and if you have picked up on something I haven't, then explain with clarity please. In physics, a physicist uses the words, 'probability' and 'chance of occurring'' as equally the same thing.

I thought initially you meant chance may have a difference meaning with probability, in which case it can in physics again. Chance is something we associate to random systems and probabilities, like a wave function, doesn't need to be random at all. But you didn't mean this so it doesn't matter.

Consider then, the cards are an ''infinite mix'' a good question would be, does the probability become 50-50?

Edited by Dubbelosix
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

 

Explain what you mean by undefined?

...

Do you mean explain what the several text-books that I used in college meant by "undefined?" I most certainly mean "it is not permitted in mathematics." This thread by your own words is not about the proscription of dividing by zero.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Strange said:

There is no mathematical way of calculating it.

 

 

Ok, so explain why there is no way of calculating the odds of my proposal? 

1 minute ago, scherado said:

Do you mean explain what the several text-books that I used in college meant by "undefined?" I most certainly mean "it is not permitted in mathematics." This thread by your own words is not about the proscription of dividing by zero.

 

Yes, I just wanted to make sure we were on the same page. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Dubbelosix said:

 

 

Ok, so explain why there is no way of calculating the odds of my proposal? 

I was just about to get to that: I was explaining that there is a world of difference in being able to calculate a probability and pondering "chance" in the clouds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Dubbelosix said:

Ok, so explain why there is no way of calculating the odds of my proposal? 

Without a definition of the functions that "go to infinity", you are trying to divide infinity by infinity. But infinity is not a number so this is undefined/meaningless.

You haven't provide enough information to apply limits and so there is nothing to calculate.

I gathered from your other threads that you know a lot of mathematics. So feel free to show us how it is done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have no idea what you are talking about.

Just now, Strange said:

Without a definition of the functions that "go to infinity", you are trying to divide infinity by infinity. But infinity is not a number so this is undefined/meaningless.

You haven't provide enough information to apply limits and so there is nothing to calculate.

I gathered from your other threads that you know a lot of mathematics. So feel free to show us how it is done.

 

 

I am not dividing an infinity by any infinity, go read the OP again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

It is completely legal to mix two infinities of the same magnitude as far as I am aware.

You cannot perform arithmetic on them. You must have studied calculus and limits? No?

2 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

the other poster.

Ah yes. That is a common problem. (I am slightly worried by the fact I seem to be on the same "side" as him!)

Edited by Strange
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is no arithmetic being performed! It's a thought experiment, the experiment has already been set up. The situation is clear, you are picking a number from infinity, then I am asking if the statistics change in a mixed infinite deck, I haven't asked you to do any operations, we have been over this already. 

Edited by Dubbelosix
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

...

You understand the situation, I have given you two infinities, from which you can pick any card. It's an unphysical situation, then yes, but its a thought-experiment which does have a mathematical explanation somewhere outside of whether it is plausible. 

...

But you have promised something you can't provide. This means I can't participate in the thought-experiment. Do you know that when you promise that I can "pick any card", that you are making an empty (impossible) promise? My choice of card is: the one at the bottom of the stack. My alternate choice is the one a the top of the stack.

Edited by scherado
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Strange said:

 

Ah yes. That is a common problem. (I am slightly worried by the fact I seem to be on the same "side" as him!)

That's because you and him haven't understood the problem. You keep talking about undefined processes and dividing infinity by infinity, none of that has anything to do with my question.

1 minute ago, scherado said:

But you have promised something you can't provide. This means I can't participate in the thought-experiment. Do you know that when you promise that I can "pick any card", that you are making an empty (impossible) promise. My choice of card is: the one at the end of the bottom of the stack.

 

 

It does have a mathematical explanation because I can't understand a situation where it couldn't have a solution, not that I actually have one. 

 

If the statement that picking the correct card from an infinite deck, is 1 in infinity, (does anyone disagree with that), then it [should] be possible to explain my extended question, of whether an infinite mixed deck changes the statistics. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

...

5 minutes ago, scherado said:

But you have promised something you can't provide. This means I can't participate in the thought-experiment. Do you know that when you promise that I can "pick any card", that you are making an empty (impossible) promise? My choice of card is: the one at the bottom of the stack. My alternate choice is the one a the top of the stack.

It does have a mathematical explanation because I can't understand a situation where it couldn't have a solution, not that I actually have one. 

...

Does that sentence refer to the quote of mine you placed before that sentence?

7 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

There is no arithmetic being performed! It's a thought experiment, the experiment has already been set up. The situation is clear, you are picking a number from infinity, then I am asking if the statistics change in a mixed infinite deck, I haven't asked you to do any operations, we have been over this already. 

My concise, clear objection to your thought-experiment does not require any mathematical calculation: I can NOT pick from the bottom of the stack, nor the top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Dubbelosix said:

No one asked to pick from the top or bottom of anything. You are making up stuff as you go along.

I didn't accuse you of asking me to pick from the top or bottom--I'm telling you that I can't pick any card which you made clear is what I am supposed to do. This means that I have accuse YOU of "making up stuff. I hope you understand the difference. You appear not to understand the difference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.